Stock Analysis on Net

United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL)

This company has been moved to the archive! The financial data has not been updated since April 17, 2024.

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 86.49% per annum.
  • UAL price at the close of April 17, 2024 was $48.74 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $222.64 (82.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.56% per annum.
  • UAL price at the close of April 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UAL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 12, 2020
End date: July 6, 2021

a = 2.7197

b = 0.0017

s = 0.1170

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 86.49%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1170) – 1
= 59.66%

March 12, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y226)
= Exp(a + b × X226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 329 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7197 + 0.0017 × 329 + 2 × 0.1170)
= Exp(3.5154)
= $33.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y226)
= Exp(a + b × X226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 329 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7197 + 0.0017 × 329 – 2 × 0.1170)
= Exp(3.0475)
= $21.06

July 6, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y557)
= Exp(a + b × X557 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7197 + 0.0017 × 810 + 2 × 0.1170)
= Exp(4.3367)
= $76.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y557)
= Exp(a + b × X557 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7197 + 0.0017 × 810 – 2 × 0.1170)
= Exp(3.8688)
= $47.88

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 86.49% per annum.
  • UAL price at the close of April 17, 2024 was $48.74 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $222.64 (82.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 9, 2020
End date: April 17, 2024

a = 3.9250

b = -0.0001

s = 0.1259

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.56%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1259) – 1
= 65.49%

November 9, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y394)
= Exp(a + b × X394 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 571 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9250 + -0.0001 × 571 + 2 × 0.1259)
= Exp(4.1201)
= $61.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y394)
= Exp(a + b × X394 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 571 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9250 + -0.0001 × 571 – 2 × 0.1259)
= Exp(3.6164)
= $37.20

April 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9250 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1259)
= Exp(3.9953)
= $54.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9250 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1259)
= Exp(3.4916)
= $32.84

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.56% per annum.
  • UAL price at the close of April 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Stock Price Trends

Check current UAL price trends.

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