Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.80% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of November 5, 2024 was $148.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 86.20% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of November 5, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.56 (0.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2024
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 6.9454
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0457
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0457) – 1
= 20.08%
March 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,093)
= Exp(a + b × X1,093 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,589 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9454 + -0.0010 × 1,589 + 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(5.3707)
= $215.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,093)
= Exp(a + b × X1,093 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,589 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9454 + -0.0010 × 1,589 – 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(5.1877)
= $179.06
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9454 + -0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(5.1222)
= $167.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9454 + -0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(4.9392)
= $139.66
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.80% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of November 5, 2024 was $148.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 3, 2024
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 14.8664
b = -0.0054
s = 0.0199
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0054) – 1
= -86.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0199) – 1
= 8.28%
October 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.8664 + -0.0054 × 1,793 + 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(5.1773)
= $177.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.8664 + -0.0054 × 1,793 – 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(5.0977)
= $163.65
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.8664 + -0.0054 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(4.9982)
= $148.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.8664 + -0.0054 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(4.9186)
= $136.82
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 86.20% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of November 5, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.56 (0.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Check current MPC price trends.
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