Economic Value Added (EVA)
EVA is registered trademark of Stern Stewart.
Economic value added or economic profit is the difference between revenues and costs,where costs include not only expenses, but also cost of capital.
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Marathon Petroleum Corp. pages available for free this week:
- Balance Sheet: Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity
- Cash Flow Statement
- Analysis of Short-term (Operating) Activity Ratios
- Analysis of Reportable Segments
- Common Stock Valuation Ratios
- Price to FCFE (P/FCFE)
- Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
- Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
- Debt to Equity since 2011
- Price to Sales (P/S) since 2011
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Economic Profit
Marathon Petroleum Corp., economic profit calculation
US$ in millions
| 12 months ended: | Dec 31, 2023 | Dec 31, 2022 | Dec 31, 2021 | Dec 31, 2020 | Dec 31, 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1 | ||||||
| Cost of capital2 | ||||||
| Invested capital3 | ||||||
| Economic profit4 | ||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
1 NOPAT. See details »
2 Cost of capital. See details »
3 Invested capital. See details »
4 2023 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= – × =
The analysis of the annual financial data reveals several notable trends and shifts over the five-year period.
- Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
- The NOPAT experienced significant volatility. Starting at 6,182 million USD in 2019, it sharply declined to a negative 10,978 million USD in 2020, indicating a substantial loss during that year. It then rebounded strongly in 2021 to 6,187 million USD, nearly matching the 2019 level, followed by a further substantial increase to 17,951 million USD in 2022. In 2023, NOPAT decreased to 10,783 million USD but remained well above the levels seen in 2019 and 2021. This pattern suggests a major disruption occurred in 2020, with a strong recovery afterward, although 2023 saw some moderation.
- Cost of Capital
- The cost of capital showed a steady upward trend throughout the period, increasing from 11.58% in 2019 to 14.99% in 2023. This gradual increment signifies rising capitalization costs or perceived investment risks, which could affect the company’s investment decisions and valuation.
- Invested Capital
- Invested capital declined overall, starting at 82,004 million USD in 2019 and falling to 63,897 million USD by 2023. The most pronounced decrease occurred between 2019 and 2021, with invested capital dropping to 63,579 million USD, followed by some recovery to 69,547 million USD in 2022 before decreasing again in 2023. This trend indicates a contraction in the asset base or capital employed over the period, which may reflect asset sales, divestitures, or operational streamlining.
- Economic Profit
- Economic profit reflects a challenging period with negative values in 2019 (-3,314 million USD), 2020 (-19,146 million USD), and 2021 (-2,188 million USD). However, there was a notable shift in 2022, with economic profit turning positive to 7,594 million USD, before declining but remaining positive at 1,208 million USD in 2023. The negative economic profit values during the first three years suggest that the company struggled to earn returns above its cost of capital during that time, especially in 2020. The substantial positive values in the last two years indicate improved profitability exceeding the cost of capital, pointing to enhanced value creation in the more recent period.
In summary, the company faced significant operational challenges and losses around 2020 but achieved a robust recovery thereafter, with improved profitability and economic performance from 2021 onward. While capital costs have increased, the company has managed to generate positive economic profits in recent years, though invested capital has contracted somewhat during the period under review. The trends suggest a period of transition with growth in efficiency and value generation following disruptive conditions.
Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)
Marathon Petroleum Corp., NOPAT calculation
US$ in millions
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »
2 Addition of increase (decrease) in allowance for doubtful accounts.
3 Addition of increase (decrease) in LIFO reserve. See details »
4 Addition of increase (decrease) in restructuring reserve.
5 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net income (loss) attributable to MPC.
6 2023 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= × =
7 2023 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest expense, net of interest capitalized = Adjusted interest expense, net of interest capitalized × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =
8 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net income (loss) attributable to MPC.
9 2023 Calculation
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income = Investment income, before tax × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =
10 Elimination of after taxes investment income.
11 Elimination of discontinued operations.
The analyzed financial data reveals significant fluctuations in key profitability indicators over the five-year period ending December 31, 2023.
- Net Income (Loss) Attributable to MPC
- Net income exhibited pronounced volatility. The figure fell from a positive $2,637 million in 2019 to a substantial loss of $9,826 million in 2020, indicating a severe downturn, likely driven by adverse market or operational factors during that year. Recovery occurred in 2021 with net income rising sharply to $9,738 million, surpassing the 2019 level. This upward momentum continued into 2022, reaching a peak of $14,516 million, followed by a decline in 2023 to $9,681 million. Overall, the net income reflected substantial cyclical variation, with a drastic loss followed by strong recovery and subsequent moderation.
- Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
- NOPAT mirrored the pattern shown by net income, experiencing a significant negative shift in 2020 where it dropped to -$10,978 million from $6,182 million in 2019. The following years saw a robust recovery with NOPAT increasing to $6,187 million in 2021, nearly returning to the 2019 level, and then peaking at $17,951 million in 2022, which notably exceeded prior peaks in both net income and NOPAT. In 2023, NOPAT decreased to $10,783 million, indicating a moderation but remaining well above pre-2020 levels.
These trends suggest that the company was affected by a significant adverse event or market condition in 2020 leading to large losses and negative operating profit. However, the subsequent two years showed a robust rebound and profitability expansion beyond pre-2020 figures, implying possible operational improvements or favorable market conditions. The slight decline in both net income and NOPAT in 2023 could indicate some normalization or emerging challenges following exceptional performance in 2022.
Cash Operating Taxes
Marathon Petroleum Corp., cash operating taxes calculation
US$ in millions
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
- Income Tax Provision (Benefit)
- The income tax provision experienced significant volatility over the analyzed period. It started with a positive provision of 1,074 million USD at the end of 2019, followed by a substantial tax benefit of -2,430 million USD in 2020, indicating a reversal or tax credit situation. In 2021, the provision reverted to a modest positive value of 264 million USD. A notable increase occurred in 2022, reaching 4,491 million USD, before declining to 2,817 million USD at the end of 2023. This pattern suggests considerable fluctuations in taxable income or tax planning strategies leading to large swings in tax expense provisions.
- Cash Operating Taxes
- Cash operating taxes mirrored the overall trend of the income tax provision but with more pronounced changes. The 2019 figure stood at 324 million USD, then sharply decreased to a cash inflow (negative tax payment) of -1,899 million USD in 2020, reflecting adjustments or refunds. In 2021, cash taxes surged to 705 million USD, climbed dramatically to 4,421 million USD in 2022—the peak value in the period—and subsequently dropped to 3,010 million USD in 2023. These fluctuations align with variations in operational profitability and tax settlement timings, indicating an erratic but generally increasing cash tax burden post-2020.
Invested Capital
Marathon Petroleum Corp., invested capital calculation (financing approach)
US$ in millions
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.
2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »
3 Addition of allowance for doubtful accounts receivable.
4 Addition of LIFO reserve. See details »
5 Addition of restructuring reserve.
6 Addition of equity equivalents to total MPC stockholders’ equity.
7 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.
8 Subtraction of short-term investments.
The financial data reveals several key trends in the capital structure and investment base over the five-year period ending in 2023.
- Total reported debt & leases
- The total reported debt and leases experienced some fluctuations. Initially, it increased from 31,317 million USD in 2019 to a peak of 33,095 million USD in 2020. This was followed by a notable decline in 2021 to 26,904 million USD. Subsequently, a moderate rise occurred over the next two years, reaching 28,501 million USD in 2023. Overall, the debt levels show some volatility but remained below the 2019 level by the end of 2023.
- Total MPC stockholders’ equity
- Stockholders’ equity showed a declining trend over the period. Starting at 33,694 million USD in 2019, equity sharply decreased to 22,199 million USD in 2020. Although it buoyantly recovered to 26,206 million USD in 2021 and further increased to 27,715 million USD in 2022, equity declined again to 24,404 million USD in 2023. Despite recovery attempts, equity in 2023 remained significantly below the 2019 level, indicating possible challenges affecting retained earnings or other components of equity.
- Invested capital
- The invested capital consistently trended downward from 82,004 million USD in 2019 to 63,897 million USD in 2023, with intermediate fluctuations. It dropped to 70,186 million USD in 2020 and further to 63,579 million USD in 2021. A recovery occurred in 2022, reaching 69,547 million USD, followed by a decline again to 63,897 million USD in 2023. This pattern suggests variability in capital investment levels or changes in capital employed over the timeframe.
In summary, the data indicates that the company experienced a general reduction in invested capital and equity levels over the five years, paired with fluctuating debt levels that ultimately ended slightly below the initial value. The changes in equity and invested capital might reflect operational or strategic adjustments impacting the capital structure.
Cost of Capital
Marathon Petroleum Corp., cost of capital calculations
| Capital (fair value)1 | Weights | Cost of capital | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity2 | ÷ | = | × | = | |||||||||
| Debt3 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Operating lease liability4 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Total: | |||||||||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).
1 US$ in millions
2 Equity. See details »
3 Debt. See details »
4 Operating lease liability. See details »
| Capital (fair value)1 | Weights | Cost of capital | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity2 | ÷ | = | × | = | |||||||||
| Debt3 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Operating lease liability4 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Total: | |||||||||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).
1 US$ in millions
2 Equity. See details »
3 Debt. See details »
4 Operating lease liability. See details »
| Capital (fair value)1 | Weights | Cost of capital | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity2 | ÷ | = | × | = | |||||||||
| Debt3 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Operating lease liability4 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Total: | |||||||||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).
1 US$ in millions
2 Equity. See details »
3 Debt. See details »
4 Operating lease liability. See details »
| Capital (fair value)1 | Weights | Cost of capital | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity2 | ÷ | = | × | = | |||||||||
| Debt3 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Operating lease liability4 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Total: | |||||||||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).
1 US$ in millions
2 Equity. See details »
3 Debt. See details »
4 Operating lease liability. See details »
| Capital (fair value)1 | Weights | Cost of capital | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity2 | ÷ | = | × | = | |||||||||
| Debt3 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Operating lease liability4 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Total: | |||||||||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
1 US$ in millions
2 Equity. See details »
3 Debt. See details »
4 Operating lease liability. See details »
Economic Spread Ratio
Marathon Petroleum Corp., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks
| Dec 31, 2023 | Dec 31, 2022 | Dec 31, 2021 | Dec 31, 2020 | Dec 31, 2019 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions) | ||||||
| Economic profit1 | ||||||
| Invested capital2 | ||||||
| Performance Ratio | ||||||
| Economic spread ratio3 | ||||||
| Benchmarks | ||||||
| Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4 | ||||||
| Chevron Corp. | ||||||
| ConocoPhillips | ||||||
| Exxon Mobil Corp. | ||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
1 Economic profit. See details »
2 Invested capital. See details »
3 2023 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × ÷ =
4 Click competitor name to see calculations.
- Economic Profit Trends
- The economic profit experienced significant fluctuations over the period analyzed. Initially, there was a considerable negative economic profit of -3,314 million USD at the end of 2019, which deteriorated sharply to -19,146 million USD in 2020. However, the figure showed a marked recovery in 2021, improving to -2,188 million USD, and then transitioned to positive territory in 2022, reaching 7,594 million USD. In 2023, economic profit decreased but remained positive at 1,208 million USD. This pattern indicates a strong rebound after a substantial loss in 2020, with profitability reestablished by 2022 but facing some challenges in maintaining high levels in 2023.
- Invested Capital Dynamics
- The invested capital demonstrated a generally declining trend throughout the period. Starting at 82,004 million USD in 2019, it reduced significantly to 70,186 million USD in 2020 and continued to contract to 63,579 million USD in 2021. There was a slight increase to 69,547 million USD in 2022, followed by a decrease again to 63,897 million USD in 2023. This indicates that the company reduced its capital investment overall, with minor fluctuations, suggesting a strategic adjustment or asset optimization during the period.
- Economic Spread Ratio Behavior
- The economic spread ratio closely mirrored the economic profit trends, showing considerable volatility. It started at -4.04% in 2019 and worsened substantially to -27.28% in 2020, signaling a steep decline in the returns over the cost of capital. The ratio improved to -3.44% in 2021 and shifted into positive territory at 10.92% in 2022, reflecting improved performance and efficiency. In 2023, the spread ratio declined to 1.89%, indicating reduced but still positive economic returns compared to the previous year.
- Overall Analysis
- The data reveals a period marked by pronounced financial challenges culminating in 2020, followed by a significant recovery phase. The company's economic profitability and returns on capital improved notably from negative to positive, highlighting a successful turnaround. Despite the recovery, the invested capital decreased over the years, which could reflect strategic capital management or divestitures. The decline in economic spread ratio from its peak in 2022 to 2023 suggests emerging pressures on economic returns that may warrant close monitoring going forward.
Economic Profit Margin
Marathon Petroleum Corp., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks
| Dec 31, 2023 | Dec 31, 2022 | Dec 31, 2021 | Dec 31, 2020 | Dec 31, 2019 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions) | ||||||
| Economic profit1 | ||||||
| Sales and other operating revenues | ||||||
| Performance Ratio | ||||||
| Economic profit margin2 | ||||||
| Benchmarks | ||||||
| Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3 | ||||||
| Chevron Corp. | ||||||
| ConocoPhillips | ||||||
| Exxon Mobil Corp. | ||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
1 Economic profit. See details »
2 2023 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Sales and other operating revenues
= 100 × ÷ =
3 Click competitor name to see calculations.
- Economic Profit
- The economic profit exhibited significant volatility over the analyzed years. Initially, it was negative at -3314 million US dollars in 2019, deepened substantially to -19146 million US dollars in 2020, and then improved to -2188 million US dollars in 2021. There was a notable positive turnaround in 2022, reaching 7594 million US dollars, but this declined again in 2023 to 1208 million US dollars, indicating a reduction in economic profitability relative to the previous year.
- Sales and Other Operating Revenues
- Sales and other operating revenues experienced a sharp decrease from 123949 million US dollars in 2019 to 69779 million US dollars in 2020. Following this decline, revenues rebounded significantly to 119983 million US dollars in 2021 and continued to grow to 177453 million US dollars in 2022. However, revenues decreased again to 148379 million US dollars in 2023, showing some instability in revenue generation across the period, particularly impacted by the steep drop in 2020 and a partial pullback in 2023.
- Economic Profit Margin
- The economic profit margin shows a similar fluctuating pattern, starting at -2.67% in 2019 and worsening sharply to -27.44% in 2020. It improved to -1.82% in 2021 and turned positive in 2022 at 4.28%, signifying enhanced profitability relative to sales. However, in 2023, the margin declined to 0.81%, indicating a reduction in economic profit relative to revenues compared to the previous year but still remaining positive.