Stock Analysis on Net

Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:MPC)

$22.49

This company has been moved to the archive! The financial data has not been updated since November 5, 2024.

Economic Value Added (EVA)

Microsoft Excel

EVA is registered trademark of Stern Stewart.

Economic value added or economic profit is the difference between revenues and costs,where costs include not only expenses, but also cost of capital.

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Economic Profit

Marathon Petroleum Corp., economic profit calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1
Cost of capital2
Invested capital3
 
Economic profit4

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 NOPAT. See details »

2 Cost of capital. See details »

3 Invested capital. See details »

4 2023 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= × =


Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
The NOPAT exhibited significant volatility over the five-year period. It started at $6,182 million in 2019, experienced a sharp decline to a negative value of -$10,978 million in 2020, indicating a substantial operating loss. However, it rebounded in 2021 to a level close to the 2019 figure at $6,187 million. The profit margin expanded notably in 2022, reaching a peak of $17,951 million, before declining to $10,783 million in 2023. This trend suggests a strong recovery and growth after the 2020 downturn, followed by a moderate decrease in the most recent year.
Cost of Capital
The cost of capital steadily increased each year from 11.58% in 2019 to 14.98% in 2023. The gradual rise indicates increasing financing costs or higher risk assessments by investors over the period, with a more accelerated increase observed from 2021 onward.
Invested Capital
Invested capital showed a decreasing trend overall, falling from $82,004 million in 2019 to $63,897 million in 2023. The reduction was somewhat uneven, with a notable drop in 2020 and 2021, a partial recovery in 2022, then a decline again in 2023. This pattern may reflect capital allocation adjustments or asset divestitures during the period.
Economic Profit
Economic profit, calculated as NOPAT minus the cost of capital applied to invested capital, followed a highly variable trajectory. Negative economic profits were recorded in 2019, with a severe decline in 2020 to -$19,143 million, corresponding to the large NOPAT loss. It improved significantly in 2021 to -$2,186 million, then turned positive in 2022 with $7,597 million, before decreasing to $1,211 million in 2023. The data reflects challenges in value creation during 2019-2021, followed by a period of economic value generation in 2022 and early 2023, albeit with less intensity in the latter year.

Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)

Marathon Petroleum Corp., NOPAT calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Net income (loss) attributable to MPC
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)1
Increase (decrease) in allowance for doubtful accounts2
Increase (decrease) in LIFO reserve3
Increase (decrease) in restructuring reserve4
Increase (decrease) in equity equivalents5
Interest expense, net of interest capitalized
Interest expense, operating lease liability6
Adjusted interest expense, net of interest capitalized
Tax benefit of interest expense, net of interest capitalized7
Adjusted interest expense, net of interest capitalized, after taxes8
Interest income
Investment income, before taxes
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income9
Investment income, after taxes10
(Income) loss from discontinued operations, net of tax11
Net income (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interest
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »

2 Addition of increase (decrease) in allowance for doubtful accounts.

3 Addition of increase (decrease) in LIFO reserve. See details »

4 Addition of increase (decrease) in restructuring reserve.

5 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net income (loss) attributable to MPC.

6 2023 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= × =

7 2023 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest expense, net of interest capitalized = Adjusted interest expense, net of interest capitalized × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

8 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net income (loss) attributable to MPC.

9 2023 Calculation
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income = Investment income, before tax × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

10 Elimination of after taxes investment income.

11 Elimination of discontinued operations.


The analyzed financial data reveals significant fluctuations in key profitability indicators over the five-year period ending December 31, 2023.

Net Income (Loss) Attributable to MPC
Net income exhibited pronounced volatility. The figure fell from a positive $2,637 million in 2019 to a substantial loss of $9,826 million in 2020, indicating a severe downturn, likely driven by adverse market or operational factors during that year. Recovery occurred in 2021 with net income rising sharply to $9,738 million, surpassing the 2019 level. This upward momentum continued into 2022, reaching a peak of $14,516 million, followed by a decline in 2023 to $9,681 million. Overall, the net income reflected substantial cyclical variation, with a drastic loss followed by strong recovery and subsequent moderation.
Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
NOPAT mirrored the pattern shown by net income, experiencing a significant negative shift in 2020 where it dropped to -$10,978 million from $6,182 million in 2019. The following years saw a robust recovery with NOPAT increasing to $6,187 million in 2021, nearly returning to the 2019 level, and then peaking at $17,951 million in 2022, which notably exceeded prior peaks in both net income and NOPAT. In 2023, NOPAT decreased to $10,783 million, indicating a moderation but remaining well above pre-2020 levels.

These trends suggest that the company was affected by a significant adverse event or market condition in 2020 leading to large losses and negative operating profit. However, the subsequent two years showed a robust rebound and profitability expansion beyond pre-2020 figures, implying possible operational improvements or favorable market conditions. The slight decline in both net income and NOPAT in 2023 could indicate some normalization or emerging challenges following exceptional performance in 2022.


Cash Operating Taxes

Marathon Petroleum Corp., cash operating taxes calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Income tax provision (benefit)
Less: Deferred income tax expense (benefit)
Add: Tax savings from interest expense, net of interest capitalized
Less: Tax imposed on investment income
Cash operating taxes

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).


Income Tax Provision (Benefit)
The income tax provision experienced significant volatility over the analyzed period. It started with a positive provision of 1,074 million USD at the end of 2019, followed by a substantial tax benefit of -2,430 million USD in 2020, indicating a reversal or tax credit situation. In 2021, the provision reverted to a modest positive value of 264 million USD. A notable increase occurred in 2022, reaching 4,491 million USD, before declining to 2,817 million USD at the end of 2023. This pattern suggests considerable fluctuations in taxable income or tax planning strategies leading to large swings in tax expense provisions.
Cash Operating Taxes
Cash operating taxes mirrored the overall trend of the income tax provision but with more pronounced changes. The 2019 figure stood at 324 million USD, then sharply decreased to a cash inflow (negative tax payment) of -1,899 million USD in 2020, reflecting adjustments or refunds. In 2021, cash taxes surged to 705 million USD, climbed dramatically to 4,421 million USD in 2022—the peak value in the period—and subsequently dropped to 3,010 million USD in 2023. These fluctuations align with variations in operational profitability and tax settlement timings, indicating an erratic but generally increasing cash tax burden post-2020.

Invested Capital

Marathon Petroleum Corp., invested capital calculation (financing approach)

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Debt due within one year
Long-term debt due after one year
Operating lease liability1
Total reported debt & leases
Total MPC stockholders’ equity
Net deferred tax (assets) liabilities2
Allowance for doubtful accounts3
LIFO reserve4
Restructuring reserve5
Equity equivalents6
Accumulated other comprehensive (income) loss, net of tax7
Redeemable noncontrolling interest
Noncontrolling interests
Adjusted total MPC stockholders’ equity
Short-term investments8
Invested capital

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.

2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »

3 Addition of allowance for doubtful accounts receivable.

4 Addition of LIFO reserve. See details »

5 Addition of restructuring reserve.

6 Addition of equity equivalents to total MPC stockholders’ equity.

7 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.

8 Subtraction of short-term investments.


The financial data reveals several key trends in the capital structure and investment base over the five-year period ending in 2023.

Total reported debt & leases
The total reported debt and leases experienced some fluctuations. Initially, it increased from 31,317 million USD in 2019 to a peak of 33,095 million USD in 2020. This was followed by a notable decline in 2021 to 26,904 million USD. Subsequently, a moderate rise occurred over the next two years, reaching 28,501 million USD in 2023. Overall, the debt levels show some volatility but remained below the 2019 level by the end of 2023.
Total MPC stockholders’ equity
Stockholders’ equity showed a declining trend over the period. Starting at 33,694 million USD in 2019, equity sharply decreased to 22,199 million USD in 2020. Although it buoyantly recovered to 26,206 million USD in 2021 and further increased to 27,715 million USD in 2022, equity declined again to 24,404 million USD in 2023. Despite recovery attempts, equity in 2023 remained significantly below the 2019 level, indicating possible challenges affecting retained earnings or other components of equity.
Invested capital
The invested capital consistently trended downward from 82,004 million USD in 2019 to 63,897 million USD in 2023, with intermediate fluctuations. It dropped to 70,186 million USD in 2020 and further to 63,579 million USD in 2021. A recovery occurred in 2022, reaching 69,547 million USD, followed by a decline again to 63,897 million USD in 2023. This pattern suggests variability in capital investment levels or changes in capital employed over the timeframe.

In summary, the data indicates that the company experienced a general reduction in invested capital and equity levels over the five years, paired with fluctuating debt levels that ultimately ended slightly below the initial value. The changes in equity and invested capital might reflect operational or strategic adjustments impacting the capital structure.


Cost of Capital

Marathon Petroleum Corp., cost of capital calculations

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »


Economic Spread Ratio

Marathon Petroleum Corp., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Economic profit1
Invested capital2
Performance Ratio
Economic spread ratio3
Benchmarks
Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4
Chevron Corp.
ConocoPhillips
Exxon Mobil Corp.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2023 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × ÷ =

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Economic Profit
The economic profit demonstrated considerable volatility over the analyzed periods. It started with a negative value of -3,311 million USD in 2019 and worsened significantly to -19,143 million USD in 2020. This was followed by a marked improvement to -2,186 million USD in 2021. Subsequently, a positive turnaround occurred in 2022, yielding 7,597 million USD, although this declined to 1,211 million USD in 2023. This trend indicates a recovery phase after a deep loss, with profitability peaking in 2022 before stabilizing at a lower positive level.
Invested Capital
Invested capital exhibited a generally declining pattern with some fluctuations. The capital invested decreased from 82,004 million USD in 2019 to 70,186 million USD in 2020 and further to 63,579 million USD in 2021. In 2022, the figure rebounded to 69,547 million USD but declined once again to 63,897 million USD in 2023. The overall trend suggests a strategic reduction in capital investment over the period, with a temporary recovery in 2022.
Economic Spread Ratio
The economic spread ratio displayed significant volatility corresponding with changes in economic profit. It began at a negative 4.04% in 2019, further deteriorated to -27.28% in 2020, and slightly improved to -3.44% in 2021. A substantial positive shift was observed in 2022, reaching 10.92%, before declining to 1.9% in 2023. This metric reflects the company's ability to generate returns above cost of capital, signaling a period of underperformance through 2021 followed by improved profitability in 2022 and moderation in 2023.

Economic Profit Margin

Marathon Petroleum Corp., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Economic profit1
Sales and other operating revenues
Performance Ratio
Economic profit margin2
Benchmarks
Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3
Chevron Corp.
ConocoPhillips
Exxon Mobil Corp.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 2023 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Sales and other operating revenues
= 100 × ÷ =

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Economic Profit
The economic profit experienced significant fluctuations over the periods analyzed. Starting with a negative value of -3311 million US dollars in 2019, it deepened substantially to -19143 million US dollars in 2020, indicating a major decline in profitability. A recovery trend appeared in 2021 with the economic profit improving to -2186 million US dollars, and by 2022, it turned positive at 7597 million US dollars. However, this positive momentum diminished in 2023, with economic profit decreasing to 1211 million US dollars.
Sales and Other Operating Revenues
Sales and other operating revenues showed notable volatility. Revenues declined sharply from 123,949 million US dollars in 2019 to 69,779 million US dollars in 2020, likely reflecting adverse external economic conditions. The company rebounded strongly in 2021 with revenues nearly returning to pre-2020 levels at 119,983 million US dollars. This upward trend continued in 2022, reaching a peak of 177,453 million US dollars, but fell again in 2023 to 148,379 million US dollars, suggesting some softness in the most recent period.
Economic Profit Margin
The economic profit margin paralleled the trends in economic profit, with a pronounced decline in 2020 to -27.43%, indicating a significant erosion of profitability relative to revenues. A marked improvement occurred in 2021, with the margin reaching -1.82%, and by 2022, it turned positive at 4.28%, signaling a return to profitable operations on a relative basis. In 2023, the margin decreased to 0.82%, illustrating a reduction in relative profitability despite remaining positive.