Economic Value Added (EVA)
EVA is registered trademark of Stern Stewart.
Economic value added or economic profit is the difference between revenues and costs,where costs include not only expenses, but also cost of capital.
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Marathon Petroleum Corp. pages available for free this week:
- Cash Flow Statement
- Common-Size Income Statement
- Analysis of Liquidity Ratios
- Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA)
- Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
- Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)
- Selected Financial Data since 2011
- Net Profit Margin since 2011
- Price to Book Value (P/BV) since 2011
- Aggregate Accruals
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Economic Profit
Marathon Petroleum Corp., economic profit calculation
US$ in millions
| 12 months ended: | Dec 31, 2023 | Dec 31, 2022 | Dec 31, 2021 | Dec 31, 2020 | Dec 31, 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1 | ||||||
| Cost of capital2 | ||||||
| Invested capital3 | ||||||
| Economic profit4 | ||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
1 NOPAT. See details »
2 Cost of capital. See details »
3 Invested capital. See details »
4 2023 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= – × =
The period under review demonstrates significant fluctuations in economic profit. Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) experienced substantial volatility, beginning with a positive value in 2019, followed by a large negative result in 2020, recovery in 2021 and 2022, and a decline in 2023. Concurrently, the cost of capital exhibited an increasing trend throughout the period, while invested capital generally decreased from 2019 to 2021 before showing a slight increase in 2022 and then decreasing again in 2023.
- Economic Profit Trend
- Economic profit was negative in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2023. The largest negative economic profit occurred in 2020, coinciding with the negative NOPAT. A positive economic profit was achieved in 2022, but this was not sustained into 2023, where economic profit again became negative, albeit less severe than in the earlier negative periods.
- NOPAT Analysis
- NOPAT decreased substantially from 2019 to 2020, indicating a significant decline in operational profitability. The subsequent recovery in 2021 and substantial increase in 2022 suggest a rebound in operational performance. However, NOPAT decreased again in 2023, indicating a weakening of operational profitability compared to 2022.
- Cost of Capital Analysis
- The cost of capital increased steadily from 13.44% in 2019 to 17.65% in 2023. This increase in the cost of capital likely contributed to the negative economic profit observed in several years, as a higher cost of capital reduces the amount of profit required to generate a return exceeding the cost of funding.
- Invested Capital Analysis
- Invested capital decreased from 2019 to 2021, potentially reflecting divestitures or reduced investment in assets. The slight increase in 2022 may indicate renewed investment, but this was followed by a decrease in 2023. These fluctuations in invested capital, combined with changes in NOPAT and the cost of capital, significantly impacted economic profit.
The interplay between NOPAT, cost of capital, and invested capital demonstrates a complex financial performance. While operational improvements in 2021 and 2022 led to a period of positive economic profit, the increasing cost of capital and declining NOPAT in 2023 resulted in a return to negative economic profit. Continued monitoring of these factors is warranted.
Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)
Marathon Petroleum Corp., NOPAT calculation
US$ in millions
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »
2 Addition of increase (decrease) in allowance for doubtful accounts.
3 Addition of increase (decrease) in LIFO reserve. See details »
4 Addition of increase (decrease) in restructuring reserve.
5 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net income (loss) attributable to MPC.
6 2023 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= × =
7 2023 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest expense, net of interest capitalized = Adjusted interest expense, net of interest capitalized × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =
8 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net income (loss) attributable to MPC.
9 2023 Calculation
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income = Investment income, before tax × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =
10 Elimination of after taxes investment income.
11 Elimination of discontinued operations.
The analyzed financial data reveals significant fluctuations in key profitability indicators over the five-year period ending December 31, 2023.
- Net Income (Loss) Attributable to MPC
- Net income exhibited pronounced volatility. The figure fell from a positive $2,637 million in 2019 to a substantial loss of $9,826 million in 2020, indicating a severe downturn, likely driven by adverse market or operational factors during that year. Recovery occurred in 2021 with net income rising sharply to $9,738 million, surpassing the 2019 level. This upward momentum continued into 2022, reaching a peak of $14,516 million, followed by a decline in 2023 to $9,681 million. Overall, the net income reflected substantial cyclical variation, with a drastic loss followed by strong recovery and subsequent moderation.
- Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
- NOPAT mirrored the pattern shown by net income, experiencing a significant negative shift in 2020 where it dropped to -$10,978 million from $6,182 million in 2019. The following years saw a robust recovery with NOPAT increasing to $6,187 million in 2021, nearly returning to the 2019 level, and then peaking at $17,951 million in 2022, which notably exceeded prior peaks in both net income and NOPAT. In 2023, NOPAT decreased to $10,783 million, indicating a moderation but remaining well above pre-2020 levels.
These trends suggest that the company was affected by a significant adverse event or market condition in 2020 leading to large losses and negative operating profit. However, the subsequent two years showed a robust rebound and profitability expansion beyond pre-2020 figures, implying possible operational improvements or favorable market conditions. The slight decline in both net income and NOPAT in 2023 could indicate some normalization or emerging challenges following exceptional performance in 2022.
Cash Operating Taxes
Marathon Petroleum Corp., cash operating taxes calculation
US$ in millions
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
- Income Tax Provision (Benefit)
- The income tax provision experienced significant volatility over the analyzed period. It started with a positive provision of 1,074 million USD at the end of 2019, followed by a substantial tax benefit of -2,430 million USD in 2020, indicating a reversal or tax credit situation. In 2021, the provision reverted to a modest positive value of 264 million USD. A notable increase occurred in 2022, reaching 4,491 million USD, before declining to 2,817 million USD at the end of 2023. This pattern suggests considerable fluctuations in taxable income or tax planning strategies leading to large swings in tax expense provisions.
- Cash Operating Taxes
- Cash operating taxes mirrored the overall trend of the income tax provision but with more pronounced changes. The 2019 figure stood at 324 million USD, then sharply decreased to a cash inflow (negative tax payment) of -1,899 million USD in 2020, reflecting adjustments or refunds. In 2021, cash taxes surged to 705 million USD, climbed dramatically to 4,421 million USD in 2022—the peak value in the period—and subsequently dropped to 3,010 million USD in 2023. These fluctuations align with variations in operational profitability and tax settlement timings, indicating an erratic but generally increasing cash tax burden post-2020.
Invested Capital
Marathon Petroleum Corp., invested capital calculation (financing approach)
US$ in millions
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.
2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »
3 Addition of allowance for doubtful accounts receivable.
4 Addition of LIFO reserve. See details »
5 Addition of restructuring reserve.
6 Addition of equity equivalents to total MPC stockholders’ equity.
7 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.
8 Subtraction of short-term investments.
The financial data reveals several key trends in the capital structure and investment base over the five-year period ending in 2023.
- Total reported debt & leases
- The total reported debt and leases experienced some fluctuations. Initially, it increased from 31,317 million USD in 2019 to a peak of 33,095 million USD in 2020. This was followed by a notable decline in 2021 to 26,904 million USD. Subsequently, a moderate rise occurred over the next two years, reaching 28,501 million USD in 2023. Overall, the debt levels show some volatility but remained below the 2019 level by the end of 2023.
- Total MPC stockholders’ equity
- Stockholders’ equity showed a declining trend over the period. Starting at 33,694 million USD in 2019, equity sharply decreased to 22,199 million USD in 2020. Although it buoyantly recovered to 26,206 million USD in 2021 and further increased to 27,715 million USD in 2022, equity declined again to 24,404 million USD in 2023. Despite recovery attempts, equity in 2023 remained significantly below the 2019 level, indicating possible challenges affecting retained earnings or other components of equity.
- Invested capital
- The invested capital consistently trended downward from 82,004 million USD in 2019 to 63,897 million USD in 2023, with intermediate fluctuations. It dropped to 70,186 million USD in 2020 and further to 63,579 million USD in 2021. A recovery occurred in 2022, reaching 69,547 million USD, followed by a decline again to 63,897 million USD in 2023. This pattern suggests variability in capital investment levels or changes in capital employed over the timeframe.
In summary, the data indicates that the company experienced a general reduction in invested capital and equity levels over the five years, paired with fluctuating debt levels that ultimately ended slightly below the initial value. The changes in equity and invested capital might reflect operational or strategic adjustments impacting the capital structure.
Cost of Capital
Marathon Petroleum Corp., cost of capital calculations
| Capital (fair value)1 | Weights | Cost of capital | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity2 | ÷ | = | × | = | |||||||||
| Debt3 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Operating lease liability4 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Total: | |||||||||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).
1 US$ in millions
2 Equity. See details »
3 Debt. See details »
4 Operating lease liability. See details »
| Capital (fair value)1 | Weights | Cost of capital | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity2 | ÷ | = | × | = | |||||||||
| Debt3 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Operating lease liability4 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Total: | |||||||||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).
1 US$ in millions
2 Equity. See details »
3 Debt. See details »
4 Operating lease liability. See details »
| Capital (fair value)1 | Weights | Cost of capital | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity2 | ÷ | = | × | = | |||||||||
| Debt3 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Operating lease liability4 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Total: | |||||||||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).
1 US$ in millions
2 Equity. See details »
3 Debt. See details »
4 Operating lease liability. See details »
| Capital (fair value)1 | Weights | Cost of capital | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity2 | ÷ | = | × | = | |||||||||
| Debt3 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Operating lease liability4 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Total: | |||||||||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).
1 US$ in millions
2 Equity. See details »
3 Debt. See details »
4 Operating lease liability. See details »
| Capital (fair value)1 | Weights | Cost of capital | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity2 | ÷ | = | × | = | |||||||||
| Debt3 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Operating lease liability4 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Total: | |||||||||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
1 US$ in millions
2 Equity. See details »
3 Debt. See details »
4 Operating lease liability. See details »
Economic Spread Ratio
Marathon Petroleum Corp., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks
| Dec 31, 2023 | Dec 31, 2022 | Dec 31, 2021 | Dec 31, 2020 | Dec 31, 2019 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions) | ||||||
| Economic profit1 | ||||||
| Invested capital2 | ||||||
| Performance Ratio | ||||||
| Economic spread ratio3 | ||||||
| Benchmarks | ||||||
| Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4 | ||||||
| Chevron Corp. | ||||||
| ConocoPhillips | ||||||
| Exxon Mobil Corp. | ||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
1 Economic profit. See details »
2 Invested capital. See details »
3 2023 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × ÷ =
4 Click competitor name to see calculations.
The economic spread ratio exhibited significant fluctuations between 2019 and 2023. Initially negative, the ratio demonstrated a substantial decline in 2020 before recovering to positive territory in 2022, and subsequently reverting to a negative value in 2023. This volatility suggests a dynamic relationship between profitability and capital employed.
- Economic Spread Ratio
- In 2019, the economic spread ratio was -5.90%, indicating that returns on invested capital were below the cost of capital. This deficit widened considerably in 2020, reaching -29.17%, representing a substantial underperformance. A recovery was observed in 2021, with the ratio improving to -5.70%, though remaining negative. The most favorable result occurred in 2022, when the ratio reached 8.27%, signifying that returns exceeded the cost of capital. However, this positive performance did not persist, as the ratio declined to -0.78% in 2023, indicating a near-breakeven situation between returns and cost of capital.
The economic profit mirrored the trend of the economic spread ratio. Large negative values in 2019 and 2020, followed by improvement in 2021 and a positive value in 2022, were then followed by a negative value in 2023. The magnitude of economic profit, in US$ millions, also fluctuated considerably, aligning with the changes in the economic spread ratio.
- Invested Capital
- Invested capital decreased from US$82,004 million in 2019 to US$63,579 million in 2021, representing a significant reduction over the period. A modest increase to US$69,547 million occurred in 2022, but it then decreased again to US$63,897 million in 2023. This suggests a strategic shift in capital allocation or potential divestitures, although further investigation would be required to confirm the underlying reasons.
The interplay between the economic spread ratio and invested capital suggests that while the company experienced periods of value creation, particularly in 2022, overall performance was inconsistent. The decline in invested capital may have been a contributing factor to the improved ratio in 2022, but the subsequent return to a negative ratio in 2023 indicates that operational improvements or external factors were insufficient to maintain profitability relative to the capital employed.
Economic Profit Margin
Marathon Petroleum Corp., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks
| Dec 31, 2023 | Dec 31, 2022 | Dec 31, 2021 | Dec 31, 2020 | Dec 31, 2019 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions) | ||||||
| Economic profit1 | ||||||
| Sales and other operating revenues | ||||||
| Performance Ratio | ||||||
| Economic profit margin2 | ||||||
| Benchmarks | ||||||
| Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3 | ||||||
| Chevron Corp. | ||||||
| ConocoPhillips | ||||||
| Exxon Mobil Corp. | ||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
1 Economic profit. See details »
2 2023 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Sales and other operating revenues
= 100 × ÷ =
3 Click competitor name to see calculations.
The economic profit margin exhibited significant fluctuations between 2019 and 2023. Initially negative, it experienced a substantial decline in 2020 before recovering and then declining again in the most recent period. This analysis details the observed trends in economic profit and its relationship to sales and other operating revenues.
- Economic Profit Margin Trend
- In 2019, the economic profit margin stood at -3.90%. This indicates that the company’s economic profit was 3.90% of sales and other operating revenues. A dramatic decrease was observed in 2020, with the margin falling to -29.34%, representing a significant erosion in economic profitability. The margin improved considerably in 2021 to -3.02%, suggesting a partial recovery in economic performance. Further improvement occurred in 2022, with the margin turning positive at 3.24%, indicating the company generated economic profit equivalent to 3.24% of sales. However, this positive trend reversed in 2023, as the economic profit margin decreased to -0.34%.
- Relationship to Sales
- Sales and other operating revenues decreased substantially in 2020, from US$123,949 million in 2019 to US$69,779 million. This decline coincided with the largest drop in the economic profit margin. Revenues then rebounded strongly in 2021 and 2022, reaching US$177,453 million, before decreasing to US$148,379 million in 2023. While revenue increases in 2021 and 2022 were associated with improvements in the economic profit margin, the revenue decrease in 2023 did not result in a corresponding decline in the margin as significant as that seen in 2020, suggesting other factors influenced profitability.
- Economic Profit
- Economic profit itself followed a volatile pattern. Negative economic profit was recorded in 2019, 2020, and 2023, amounting to US$-4,839 million, US$-20,476 million, and US$-497 million respectively. A positive economic profit of US$5,751 million was achieved in 2022, but this was preceded by a smaller negative value of US$-3,623 million in 2021. The magnitude of the negative economic profit in 2020 was considerably larger than in other negative years, highlighting a period of substantial underperformance relative to the cost of capital.
The fluctuations in economic profit margin appear to be influenced by both changes in sales and underlying economic profitability. The significant decline in 2020 suggests a combination of reduced revenue and potentially increased costs or a higher cost of capital. The subsequent recovery in 2021 and 2022 indicates improved economic performance, but the return to a negative margin in 2023 warrants further investigation.