Stock Analysis on Net

Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO)

$22.49

This company has been moved to the archive! The financial data has not been updated since October 30, 2024.

Economic Value Added (EVA)

Microsoft Excel

EVA is registered trademark of Stern Stewart.

Economic value added or economic profit is the difference between revenues and costs,where costs include not only expenses, but also cost of capital.

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Economic Profit

Valero Energy Corp., economic profit calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1
Cost of capital2
Invested capital3
 
Economic profit4

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 NOPAT. See details »

2 Cost of capital. See details »

3 Invested capital. See details »

4 2023 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= × =


Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
The net operating profit after taxes exhibited significant fluctuations over the analyzed period. In 2019, the value was positive at $4,429 million but dropped sharply in 2020 to a negative $1,650 million. The company then recovered strongly in 2021 and 2022, reaching $5,561 million and $13,520 million, respectively. However, in 2023, there was a notable decline to $7,868 million, although it remained positive.
Cost of Capital
The cost of capital showed moderate variability. Starting at 15.53% in 2019, it decreased to 14.18% in 2020, before rising again to 14.96% in 2021. Subsequently, it increased more substantially to 17.11% in 2022 and slightly decreased to 16.94% in 2023. This trend indicates a rising capital cost environment, particularly strong during 2022.
Invested Capital
Invested capital increased steadily throughout the period. The values grew from $40,757 million in 2019 to $51,119 million in 2023, reflecting continued investment and expansion efforts. The most significant growth occurred between 2021 and 2022.
Economic Profit
Economic profit demonstrated considerable volatility and was mostly negative over the years. It started at a negative $1,900 million in 2019, fell further to a low of negative $7,460 million in 2020, and then improved significantly to a negative $1,100 million in 2021. The company achieved positive economic profit of $5,005 million in 2022, but it again returned to a negative position of $789 million in 2023. This pattern suggests challenges in consistently exceeding the cost of capital despite improvements in operational profitability.
Summary
Overall, the company experienced substantial fluctuations in profitability and economic profit, impacted possibly by market or operational challenges in 2020. While the cost of capital increased over the period, invested capital grew steadily. The positive economic profit in 2022 indicates a period of value creation, but the subsequent return to negative figures in 2023 warrants attention. The decline in NOPAT in 2023 compared to the prior year further signals the need for monitoring to maintain sustainable profitability in light of rising capital costs.

Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)

Valero Energy Corp., NOPAT calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Net income (loss) attributable to Valero Energy Corporation stockholders
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)1
Increase (decrease) in allowance for credit losses2
Increase (decrease) in LIFO reserve3
Increase (decrease) in equity equivalents4
Interest and debt expense, net of capitalized interest
Interest expense, operating lease liability5
Adjusted interest and debt expense, net of capitalized interest
Tax benefit of interest and debt expense, net of capitalized interest6
Adjusted interest and debt expense, net of capitalized interest, after taxes7
Net income (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interest
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »

2 Addition of increase (decrease) in allowance for credit losses.

3 Addition of increase (decrease) in LIFO reserve. See details »

4 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net income (loss) attributable to Valero Energy Corporation stockholders.

5 2023 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= × =

6 2023 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest and debt expense, net of capitalized interest = Adjusted interest and debt expense, net of capitalized interest × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

7 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net income (loss) attributable to Valero Energy Corporation stockholders.


Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Stockholders
The net income experienced a significant decline in the year ending 2020, moving from a positive 2,422 million US dollars in 2019 to a negative 1,421 million US dollars. This was followed by a recovery period, with net income rising to 930 million US dollars in 2021. The company then showed strong profitability in 2022, reaching 11,528 million US dollars, before seeing a decrease to 8,835 million US dollars in 2023. Overall, this pattern indicates volatility with a substantial rebound post-2020.
Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
The NOPAT data mirrors the trends seen in net income, starting at 4,429 million US dollars in 2019 and dropping to negative 1,650 million US dollars in 2020. There was a pronounced recovery in 2021, with NOPAT increasing to 5,561 million US dollars. The highest value in the series occurred in 2022, with 13,520 million US dollars, followed by a reduction to 7,868 million US dollars in 2023. This fluctuation highlights a similar pattern of operational profitability impact and recovery as observed in net income.

Cash Operating Taxes

Valero Energy Corp., cash operating taxes calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Income tax expense (benefit)
Less: Deferred income tax expense (benefit)
Add: Tax savings from interest and debt expense, net of capitalized interest
Cash operating taxes

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).


The analysis of the annual financial data reveals significant fluctuations in the income tax expense (benefit) and cash operating taxes over the five-year period.

Income Tax Expense (Benefit)
The income tax expense exhibited a notable negative value in 2020, reaching a benefit of -$903 million, which contrasts sharply with the positive expense of $702 million in 2019. Following this period, the tax expense rose to $255 million in 2021, before surging substantially to $3,428 million in 2022. In 2023, this figure decreased somewhat but remained elevated at $2,619 million, indicating a return to significant tax liabilities compared to the earlier years.
Cash Operating Taxes
Cash operating taxes mirrored the trend seen in the income tax expense, with a negative outflow of -$931 million in 2020 compared to $577 million in 2019. Subsequently, there was a marked increase to $519 million in 2021, which escalated dramatically to $3,508 million in 2022. In the most recent year, 2023, cash operating taxes declined slightly to $2,654 million, but still remained considerably higher than pre-2020 levels.

Overall, the data indicates a period of tax benefit in 2020 followed by a consistent and substantial increase in tax expenses and cash operating taxes in the subsequent years. The sharp rise in both metrics during 2022 and 2023 suggests changes in earnings, tax policies, or other factors impacting the company's tax payable status, resulting in a significantly higher cash outflow related to taxes despite the decrease from the 2022 peak.


Invested Capital

Valero Energy Corp., invested capital calculation (financing approach)

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Current portion of debt and finance lease obligations
Debt and finance lease obligations, less current portion
Operating lease liability1
Total reported debt & leases
Total Valero Energy Corporation stockholders’ equity
Net deferred tax (assets) liabilities2
Allowance for credit losses3
LIFO reserve4
Equity equivalents5
Accumulated other comprehensive (income) loss, net of tax6
Noncontrolling interests
Adjusted total Valero Energy Corporation stockholders’ equity
Construction in progress7
Invested capital

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.

2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »

3 Addition of allowance for doubtful accounts receivable.

4 Addition of LIFO reserve. See details »

5 Addition of equity equivalents to total Valero Energy Corporation stockholders’ equity.

6 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.

7 Subtraction of construction in progress.


Total reported debt & leases
The total reported debt and leases exhibited a rising trend from 2019 to 2020, increasing from $10,962 million to $15,847 million. Subsequently, there was a consistent decline over the next three years, with figures decreasing to $15,125 million in 2021, then dropping more significantly to $12,722 million in 2022, and further to $12,637 million by the end of 2023. This indicates a period of increased leverage followed by a notable reduction in debt levels.
Total Valero Energy Corporation stockholders’ equity
Stockholders' equity showed a downward trajectory between 2019 and 2021, falling from $21,803 million to $18,430 million. However, a reversal occurred in 2022 when equity increased sharply to $23,561 million and continued to grow substantially to $26,346 million in 2023. This pattern suggests an initial period of equity erosion followed by a recovery and strengthening of the equity base.
Invested capital
Invested capital demonstrated a mostly steady upward movement over the five-year span. Starting at $40,757 million in 2019, it slightly increased in 2020 to $40,966 million, then advanced more markedly to $44,526 million in 2021. The growth trend continued with an increase to $49,772 million in 2022, reaching $51,119 million in 2023. This represents ongoing investment and capital deployment over the period.
Summary
Overall, the financial data reflect a phase of increased debt leverage in 2020, followed by deliberate deleveraging from 2021 onward. Concurrently, stockholders’ equity declined in the early years but rebounded strongly in the latest two years, indicating improved financial health or retained earnings accumulation. The continuous growth in invested capital suggests sustained investment efforts, aligning with the strengthening equity position and reduced reliance on debt financing during the latter years.

Cost of Capital

Valero Energy Corp., cost of capital calculations

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »


Economic Spread Ratio

Valero Energy Corp., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Economic profit1
Invested capital2
Performance Ratio
Economic spread ratio3
Benchmarks
Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4
Chevron Corp.
ConocoPhillips
Exxon Mobil Corp.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2023 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × ÷ =

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Economic Profit
The economic profit demonstrates considerable volatility over the observed periods. Beginning with a negative figure of -1900 million USD in 2019, the value sharply declined to -7460 million USD in 2020, indicating a significant increase in economic losses. Thereafter, the economic profit partially recovered in 2021 to -1100 million USD, followed by a positive turnaround in 2022 reaching 5005 million USD. However, in 2023, the figure reverted to a negative position at -789 million USD, reflecting renewed economic losses but to a lesser extent compared to earlier negative periods.
Invested Capital
The invested capital shows a steady upward trend throughout the five-year period. Starting at approximately 40,757 million USD in 2019, it exhibits consistent annual increases, reaching 51,119 million USD by 2023. This growth suggests ongoing investment and capital deployment within the company without apparent contractions or withdrawals during the observed timeframe.
Economic Spread Ratio
The economic spread ratio aligns closely with the fluctuations seen in economic profit. It begins at -4.66% in 2019, deteriorates sharply to -18.21% in 2020, indicating a substantial decline in returns relative to the cost of capital. The ratio then improves markedly in 2021 to -2.47% and shifts positively in 2022 to 10.06%, reflecting a period of economic value creation. In 2023, the ratio declines again to -1.54%, suggesting that the company's returns remained slightly below the cost of capital in the most recent year, although less negatively than in the earlier years of the period.

Economic Profit Margin

Valero Energy Corp., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Economic profit1
Revenues, includes excise taxes on sales by certain of foreign operations
Performance Ratio
Economic profit margin2
Benchmarks
Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3
Chevron Corp.
ConocoPhillips
Exxon Mobil Corp.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 2023 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Revenues, includes excise taxes on sales by certain of foreign operations
= 100 × ÷ =

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Economic Profit
The economic profit exhibited significant volatility over the analyzed period. Starting at a negative value of -1900 million USD in 2019, it worsened substantially to -7460 million USD in 2020. This was followed by a recovery phase in 2021 where the loss narrowed to -1100 million USD. The company achieved a positive economic profit of 5005 million USD in 2022, indicating an improvement in value creation. However, in 2023, the economic profit declined again to a negative -789 million USD, reflecting some deterioration after the prior year’s gains.
Revenues
Revenues showed considerable fluctuations throughout the period. In 2019, revenues were 108,324 million USD but decreased sharply to 64,912 million USD in 2020, possibly reflecting adverse market or operational conditions. Subsequently, revenues rose significantly to 113,977 million USD in 2021 and experienced a further strong increase to 176,383 million USD in 2022. In 2023, revenues declined to 144,766 million USD, though this level remained substantially higher than the early years.
Economic Profit Margin
The economic profit margin paralleled the trends of economic profit, beginning at -1.75% in 2019 and deepening to -11.49% in 2020, highlighting reduced profitability relative to revenue. The margin improved to -0.97% in 2021, turning positive to 2.84% in 2022, signaling operational efficiency gains and value creation. However, it regressed to a slightly negative margin of -0.55% in 2023, indicating marginal inefficiencies or increased costs relative to income.
Overall Assessment
The company experienced a turbulent financial performance with significant fluctuations in both economic profit and revenues. The period was marked by a sharp decline in 2020, followed by a recovery phase peaking in 2022. Despite strong revenue growth in certain years, challenges remained in consistently translating sales into positive economic profit and margin, as shown by the negative returns in most years except 2022. The data suggests the company faces ongoing challenges in maintaining profitability despite revenue growth, necessitating a focus on operational efficiency and cost management.