Stock Analysis on Net

Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO)

$22.49

This company has been moved to the archive! The financial data has not been updated since October 30, 2024.

Economic Value Added (EVA)

Microsoft Excel

EVA is registered trademark of Stern Stewart.

Economic value added or economic profit is the difference between revenues and costs,where costs include not only expenses, but also cost of capital.

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Economic Profit

Valero Energy Corp., economic profit calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1
Cost of capital2
Invested capital3
 
Economic profit4

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 NOPAT. See details »

2 Cost of capital. See details »

3 Invested capital. See details »

4 2023 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= × =


The analysis of economic value added reveals a period of significant volatility in value creation, characterized by a general inability to consistently exceed the required cost of capital. While there was a notable surge in operating performance during 2022, economic profit remained negative in four of the five analyzed years, indicating that the returns generated were insufficient to cover the cost of the invested capital base.

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
A highly volatile trend is observed in NOPAT, which experienced a sharp decline to a loss of US$ 1,650 million in 2020. A subsequent recovery led to a peak of US$ 13,520 million in 2022, followed by a contraction to US$ 7,868 million in 2023. This fluctuation suggests that operating profitability is heavily influenced by external market cycles.
Invested Capital and Cost of Capital
Invested capital showed a consistent upward trajectory, increasing from US$ 40,757 million in 2019 to US$ 51,119 million by 2023. During this same period, the cost of capital remained elevated, fluctuating between 16.45% and 19.96%. The steady expansion of the capital base, coupled with a high cost of capital, has effectively raised the threshold required to achieve positive economic profit.
Economic Profit Trends
Economic profit exhibited extreme swings, reaching a trough of negative US$ 8,389 million in 2020. The only year of positive value creation occurred in 2022, with an economic profit of US$ 3,583 million, directly correlating with the peak in NOPAT. The return to a negative value of US$ 2,230 million in 2023 confirms a recurring pattern where operating returns fail to outperform the cost of the capital employed.

Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)

Valero Energy Corp., NOPAT calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Net income (loss) attributable to Valero Energy Corporation stockholders
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)1
Increase (decrease) in allowance for credit losses2
Increase (decrease) in LIFO reserve3
Increase (decrease) in equity equivalents4
Interest and debt expense, net of capitalized interest
Interest expense, operating lease liability5
Adjusted interest and debt expense, net of capitalized interest
Tax benefit of interest and debt expense, net of capitalized interest6
Adjusted interest and debt expense, net of capitalized interest, after taxes7
Net income (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interest
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »

2 Addition of increase (decrease) in allowance for credit losses.

3 Addition of increase (decrease) in LIFO reserve. See details »

4 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net income (loss) attributable to Valero Energy Corporation stockholders.

5 2023 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= × =

6 2023 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest and debt expense, net of capitalized interest = Adjusted interest and debt expense, net of capitalized interest × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

7 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net income (loss) attributable to Valero Energy Corporation stockholders.


Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Stockholders
The net income experienced a significant decline in the year ending 2020, moving from a positive 2,422 million US dollars in 2019 to a negative 1,421 million US dollars. This was followed by a recovery period, with net income rising to 930 million US dollars in 2021. The company then showed strong profitability in 2022, reaching 11,528 million US dollars, before seeing a decrease to 8,835 million US dollars in 2023. Overall, this pattern indicates volatility with a substantial rebound post-2020.
Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
The NOPAT data mirrors the trends seen in net income, starting at 4,429 million US dollars in 2019 and dropping to negative 1,650 million US dollars in 2020. There was a pronounced recovery in 2021, with NOPAT increasing to 5,561 million US dollars. The highest value in the series occurred in 2022, with 13,520 million US dollars, followed by a reduction to 7,868 million US dollars in 2023. This fluctuation highlights a similar pattern of operational profitability impact and recovery as observed in net income.

Cash Operating Taxes

Valero Energy Corp., cash operating taxes calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Income tax expense (benefit)
Less: Deferred income tax expense (benefit)
Add: Tax savings from interest and debt expense, net of capitalized interest
Cash operating taxes

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).


The analysis of the annual financial data reveals significant fluctuations in the income tax expense (benefit) and cash operating taxes over the five-year period.

Income Tax Expense (Benefit)
The income tax expense exhibited a notable negative value in 2020, reaching a benefit of -$903 million, which contrasts sharply with the positive expense of $702 million in 2019. Following this period, the tax expense rose to $255 million in 2021, before surging substantially to $3,428 million in 2022. In 2023, this figure decreased somewhat but remained elevated at $2,619 million, indicating a return to significant tax liabilities compared to the earlier years.
Cash Operating Taxes
Cash operating taxes mirrored the trend seen in the income tax expense, with a negative outflow of -$931 million in 2020 compared to $577 million in 2019. Subsequently, there was a marked increase to $519 million in 2021, which escalated dramatically to $3,508 million in 2022. In the most recent year, 2023, cash operating taxes declined slightly to $2,654 million, but still remained considerably higher than pre-2020 levels.

Overall, the data indicates a period of tax benefit in 2020 followed by a consistent and substantial increase in tax expenses and cash operating taxes in the subsequent years. The sharp rise in both metrics during 2022 and 2023 suggests changes in earnings, tax policies, or other factors impacting the company's tax payable status, resulting in a significantly higher cash outflow related to taxes despite the decrease from the 2022 peak.


Invested Capital

Valero Energy Corp., invested capital calculation (financing approach)

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Current portion of debt and finance lease obligations
Debt and finance lease obligations, less current portion
Operating lease liability1
Total reported debt & leases
Total Valero Energy Corporation stockholders’ equity
Net deferred tax (assets) liabilities2
Allowance for credit losses3
LIFO reserve4
Equity equivalents5
Accumulated other comprehensive (income) loss, net of tax6
Noncontrolling interests
Adjusted total Valero Energy Corporation stockholders’ equity
Construction in progress7
Invested capital

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.

2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »

3 Addition of allowance for doubtful accounts receivable.

4 Addition of LIFO reserve. See details »

5 Addition of equity equivalents to total Valero Energy Corporation stockholders’ equity.

6 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.

7 Subtraction of construction in progress.


Total reported debt & leases
The total reported debt and leases exhibited a rising trend from 2019 to 2020, increasing from $10,962 million to $15,847 million. Subsequently, there was a consistent decline over the next three years, with figures decreasing to $15,125 million in 2021, then dropping more significantly to $12,722 million in 2022, and further to $12,637 million by the end of 2023. This indicates a period of increased leverage followed by a notable reduction in debt levels.
Total Valero Energy Corporation stockholders’ equity
Stockholders' equity showed a downward trajectory between 2019 and 2021, falling from $21,803 million to $18,430 million. However, a reversal occurred in 2022 when equity increased sharply to $23,561 million and continued to grow substantially to $26,346 million in 2023. This pattern suggests an initial period of equity erosion followed by a recovery and strengthening of the equity base.
Invested capital
Invested capital demonstrated a mostly steady upward movement over the five-year span. Starting at $40,757 million in 2019, it slightly increased in 2020 to $40,966 million, then advanced more markedly to $44,526 million in 2021. The growth trend continued with an increase to $49,772 million in 2022, reaching $51,119 million in 2023. This represents ongoing investment and capital deployment over the period.
Summary
Overall, the financial data reflect a phase of increased debt leverage in 2020, followed by deliberate deleveraging from 2021 onward. Concurrently, stockholders’ equity declined in the early years but rebounded strongly in the latest two years, indicating improved financial health or retained earnings accumulation. The continuous growth in invested capital suggests sustained investment efforts, aligning with the strengthening equity position and reduced reliance on debt financing during the latter years.

Cost of Capital

Valero Energy Corp., cost of capital calculations

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »


Economic Spread Ratio

Valero Energy Corp., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Economic profit1
Invested capital2
Performance Ratio
Economic spread ratio3
Benchmarks
Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4
Chevron Corp.
ConocoPhillips
Exxon Mobil Corp.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2023 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × ÷ =

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.


The financial performance regarding economic value added exhibits significant volatility between 2019 and 2023, characterized by inconsistent economic profits and a steadily expanding capital base.

Invested Capital Trends
A consistent upward trajectory in invested capital is observed, growing from 40,757 million USD in 2019 to 51,119 million USD by 2023. This represents a steady expansion of the capital employed in the business over the five-year period, with the most pronounced increases occurring between 2021 and 2022.
Economic Profit Volatility
Economic profit remained negative for the majority of the analyzed period, reflecting an inability to generate returns above the cost of capital in four out of five years. A severe contraction occurred in 2020, where economic profit reached its lowest point at -8,389 million USD. A sharp reversal occurred in 2022, yielding a positive economic profit of 3,583 million USD, before returning to a deficit of -2,230 million USD in 2023.
Economic Spread Ratio Analysis
The economic spread ratio mirrors the volatility of economic profit, fluctuating between a low of -20.48% in 2020 and a peak of 7.20% in 2022. The negative ratios in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2023 indicate that the return on invested capital was lower than the weighted average cost of capital during those periods. The singular positive spread in 2022 indicates a period of genuine economic value creation, whereas the subsequent drop to -4.36% in 2023 signifies a return to value erosion.

In summary, while the company has consistently increased its invested capital, it has struggled to maintain a positive economic spread. The outlier performance in 2022 suggests a temporary period of high efficiency or favorable market conditions, but the overall five-year trend indicates a recurring failure to exceed the required rate of return on the capital deployed.


Economic Profit Margin

Valero Energy Corp., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Economic profit1
Revenues, includes excise taxes on sales by certain of foreign operations
Performance Ratio
Economic profit margin2
Benchmarks
Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3
Chevron Corp.
ConocoPhillips
Exxon Mobil Corp.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 2023 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Revenues, includes excise taxes on sales by certain of foreign operations
= 100 × ÷ =

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.


The analysis of economic value added reveals a period of significant volatility in value creation, characterized by fluctuating economic profit and corresponding margins between 2019 and 2023.

Economic Profit Margin Trends
The economic profit margin remained negative for four of the five years analyzed. A critical decline was observed in 2020, where the margin dropped to -12.92%, marking the lowest point in the period. A subsequent recovery occurred through 2021, leading to a peak in 2022 where the margin reached a positive 2.03%. This positive momentum reversed in 2023, with the margin returning to a negative -1.54%.
Revenue Correlation and Impact
Revenues exhibited a pattern closely mirroring economic profit. A substantial contraction occurred in 2020, with revenues falling to $64.91 billion. The expansion to a peak of $176.38 billion in 2022 aligns with the only instance of positive economic profit, which totaled $3.58 billion. The contraction of revenue to $144.77 billion in 2023 coincided with a return to negative economic profit, suggesting that value creation is highly sensitive to revenue scale and external market conditions.
Economic Profit Volatility
Absolute economic profit showed extreme variance, swinging from a loss of $8.39 billion in 2020 to a gain of $3.58 billion in 2022. The persistence of negative economic profit in 2019, 2021, and 2023 indicates that the organization operated below its cost of capital for the majority of the period, with 2022 serving as the sole year of economic value addition.