Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 169.37% per annum.
- META price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $475.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 113.41% per annum.
- META price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of META price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2022
End date: April 24, 2024
a = 1.3861
b = 0.0027
s = 0.1230
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 169.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1230) – 1
= 63.54%
September 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y851)
= Exp(a + b × X851 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3861 + 0.0027 × 1,235 + 2 × 0.1230)
= Exp(4.9849)
= $146.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y851)
= Exp(a + b × X851 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3861 + 0.0027 × 1,235 – 2 × 0.1230)
= Exp(4.4930)
= $89.39
April 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3861 + 0.0027 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.1230)
= Exp(6.5487)
= $698.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3861 + 0.0027 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.1230)
= Exp(6.0568)
= $427.00
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 169.37% per annum.
- META price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $475.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 15, 2023
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 2.4353
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0782
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 113.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0782) – 1
= 36.70%
March 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y968)
= Exp(a + b × X968 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,405 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4353 + 0.0021 × 1,405 + 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(5.5096)
= $247.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y968)
= Exp(a + b × X968 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,405 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4353 + 0.0021 × 1,405 – 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(5.1969)
= $180.72
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4353 + 0.0021 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(6.3839)
= $592.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4353 + 0.0021 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(6.0713)
= $433.24
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 113.41% per annum.
- META price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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