Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.66% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of October 1, 2026 was $334.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.39% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of October 1, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 30, 2026
End date: October 1, 2026
a = 6.2045
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0323
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0323) – 1
= 13.79%
April 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y185)
= Exp(a + b × X185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 268 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2045 + -0.0010 × 268 + 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(6.0108)
= $407.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y185)
= Exp(a + b × X185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 268 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2045 + -0.0010 × 268 – 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(5.8816)
= $358.39
October 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2045 + -0.0010 × 422 + 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(5.8624)
= $351.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2045 + -0.0010 × 422 – 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(5.7332)
= $308.96
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.66% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of October 1, 2026 was $334.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 11, 2026
End date: October 1, 2026
a = 5.8652
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0141
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0141) – 1
= 5.82%
August 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y255)
= Exp(a + b × X255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 371 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8652 + -0.0001 × 371 + 2 × 0.0141)
= Exp(5.8584)
= $350.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y255)
= Exp(a + b × X255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 371 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8652 + -0.0001 × 371 – 2 × 0.0141)
= Exp(5.8019)
= $330.92
October 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8652 + -0.0001 × 422 + 2 × 0.0141)
= Exp(5.8536)
= $348.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8652 + -0.0001 × 422 – 2 × 0.0141)
= Exp(5.7971)
= $329.33
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.39% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of October 1, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.