Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.50% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $170.29 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 222.48% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 26, 2022
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 3.1571
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0576
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0576) – 1
= 25.91%
October 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y872)
= Exp(a + b × X872 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,262 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1571 + 0.0011 × 1,262 + 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(4.6161)
= $101.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y872)
= Exp(a + b × X872 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,262 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1571 + 0.0011 × 1,262 – 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(4.3857)
= $80.30
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1571 + 0.0011 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(5.2146)
= $183.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1571 + 0.0011 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(4.9841)
= $146.08
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.50% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $170.29 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 26, 2024
End date: May 10, 2024
a = -0.7033
b = 0.0032
s = 0.0226
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 222.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0226) – 1
= 9.44%
February 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7033 + 0.0032 × 1,750 + 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(4.9555)
= $141.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7033 + 0.0032 × 1,750 – 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(4.8653)
= $129.71
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7033 + 0.0032 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(5.1929)
= $179.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7033 + 0.0032 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(5.1027)
= $164.46
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 222.48% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out GOOG and 1,499 other stocks on our new website