Stock Analysis on Net

Walt Disney Co. (NYSE:DIS)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.79% per annum.
  • DIS price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $98.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.47% per annum.
  • DIS price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DIS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 11, 2023
End date: March 27, 2025

a = 4.0466

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0886

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 13.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0886) – 1
= 42.52%

May 11, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y785)
= Exp(a + b × X785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,137 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0466 + 0.0004 × 1,137 + 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(4.6262)
= $102.12

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y785)
= Exp(a + b × X785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,137 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0466 + 0.0004 × 1,137 – 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(4.2719)
= $71.66

March 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0466 + 0.0004 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(4.8690)
= $130.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0466 + 0.0004 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(4.5147)
= $91.35

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.79% per annum.
  • DIS price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $98.07 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 15, 2024
End date: March 28, 2025

a = 6.3798

b = -0.0010

s = 0.0311

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.47%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0311) – 1
= 13.23%

November 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,691 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3798 + -0.0010 × 1,691 + 2 × 0.0311)
= Exp(4.8245)
= $124.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,691 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3798 + -0.0010 × 1,691 – 2 × 0.0311)
= Exp(4.7002)
= $109.97

March 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3798 + -0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0311)
= Exp(4.6972)
= $109.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3798 + -0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0311)
= Exp(4.5730)
= $96.84

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.47% per annum.
  • DIS price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
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