Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.79% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $98.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.47% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DIS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 11, 2023
End date: March 27, 2025
a = 4.0466
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0886
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 13.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0886) – 1
= 42.52%
May 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y785)
= Exp(a + b × X785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,137 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0466 + 0.0004 × 1,137 + 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(4.6262)
= $102.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y785)
= Exp(a + b × X785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,137 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0466 + 0.0004 × 1,137 – 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(4.2719)
= $71.66
March 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0466 + 0.0004 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(4.8690)
= $130.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0466 + 0.0004 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(4.5147)
= $91.35
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.79% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $98.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 15, 2024
End date: March 28, 2025
a = 6.3798
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0311
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0311) – 1
= 13.23%
November 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,691 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3798 + -0.0010 × 1,691 + 2 × 0.0311)
= Exp(4.8245)
= $124.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,691 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3798 + -0.0010 × 1,691 – 2 × 0.0311)
= Exp(4.7002)
= $109.97
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3798 + -0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0311)
= Exp(4.6972)
= $109.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3798 + -0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0311)
= Exp(4.5730)
= $96.84
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.47% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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