Stock Analysis on Net

Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 75.29% per annum.
  • NFLX price at the close of April 4, 2025 was $855.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 37.91% per annum.
  • NFLX price at the close of April 4, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NFLX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 21, 2022
End date: April 3, 2025

a = 4.1192

b = 0.0015

s = 0.0867

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 75.29%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0867) – 1
= 41.48%

April 21, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y515)
= Exp(a + b × X515 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1192 + 0.0015 × 745 + 2 × 0.0867)
= Exp(5.4383)
= $230.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y515)
= Exp(a + b × X515 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1192 + 0.0015 × 745 – 2 × 0.0867)
= Exp(5.0913)
= $162.60

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1192 + 0.0015 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0867)
= Exp(7.0960)
= $1,207.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1192 + 0.0015 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0867)
= Exp(6.7490)
= $853.20

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 75.29% per annum.
  • NFLX price at the close of April 4, 2025 was $855.86 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 23, 2025
End date: April 4, 2025

a = 9.2115

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0396

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.91%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0396) – 1
= 17.18%

January 23, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,753 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2115 + -0.0013 × 1,753 + 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(7.0017)
= $1,098.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,753 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2115 + -0.0013 × 1,753 – 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(6.8432)
= $937.45

April 4, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2115 + -0.0013 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(6.9090)
= $1,001.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2115 + -0.0013 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(6.7505)
= $854.45

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 37.91% per annum.
  • NFLX price at the close of April 4, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Stock Price Trends
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