Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.89% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of February 20, 2025 was $62.17 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.41 (13.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 114.43% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of February 20, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MDLZ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 4, 2024
End date: January 24, 2025
a = 7.8458
b = -0.0021
s = 0.0148
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0148) – 1
= 6.08%
September 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8458 + -0.0021 × 1,657 + 2 × 0.0148)
= Exp(4.3613)
= $78.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8458 + -0.0021 × 1,657 – 2 × 0.0148)
= Exp(4.3023)
= $73.87
January 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8458 + -0.0021 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0148)
= Exp(4.0602)
= $57.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8458 + -0.0021 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0148)
= Exp(4.0012)
= $54.66
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.89% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of February 20, 2025 was $62.17 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.41 (13.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 10, 2025
End date: February 20, 2025
a = 0.2914
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0183
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 114.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0183) – 1
= 7.58%
January 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2914 + 0.0021 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(4.0585)
= $57.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2914 + 0.0021 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(3.9854)
= $53.81
February 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2914 + 0.0021 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(4.1442)
= $63.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2914 + 0.0021 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(4.0711)
= $58.62
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 114.43% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of February 20, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out MDLZ and 1,499 other stocks on our new website