Stock Analysis on Net

PepsiCo Inc. (NASDAQ:PEP)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.20% per annum.
  • PEP price at the close of April 21, 2025 was $141.73 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 24.42% per annum.
  • PEP price at the close of April 21, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PEP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 24, 2022
End date: April 21, 2025

a = 5.2597

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0465

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.20%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0465) – 1
= 20.43%

October 24, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y632)
= Exp(a + b × X632 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 915 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2597 + -0.0001 × 915 + 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(5.2452)
= $189.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y632)
= Exp(a + b × X632 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 915 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2597 + -0.0001 × 915 – 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(5.0593)
= $157.48

April 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2597 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(5.1383)
= $170.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2597 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(4.9524)
= $141.52

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.20% per annum.
  • PEP price at the close of April 21, 2025 was $141.73 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 26, 2024
End date: April 21, 2025

a = 6.3559

b = -0.0008

s = 0.0298

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -24.42%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0298) – 1
= 12.67%

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,072)
= Exp(a + b × X1,072 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,556 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3559 + -0.0008 × 1,556 + 2 × 0.0298)
= Exp(5.2222)
= $185.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,072)
= Exp(a + b × X1,072 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,556 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3559 + -0.0008 × 1,556 – 2 × 0.0298)
= Exp(5.1029)
= $164.50

April 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3559 + -0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0298)
= Exp(5.0159)
= $150.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3559 + -0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0298)
= Exp(4.8966)
= $133.83

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 24.42% per annum.
  • PEP price at the close of April 21, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
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