Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.52% per annum.
- CI price at the close of February 28, 2025 was $308.85 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 68.39% per annum.
- CI price at the close of February 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2024
End date: February 28, 2025
a = 6.6574
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0526
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0526) – 1
= 23.42%
March 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,466 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6574 + -0.0005 × 1,466 + 2 × 0.0526)
= Exp(5.9890)
= $399.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,466 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6574 + -0.0005 × 1,466 – 2 × 0.0526)
= Exp(5.7786)
= $323.30
February 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6574 + -0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0526)
= Exp(5.8001)
= $330.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6574 + -0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0526)
= Exp(5.5897)
= $267.65
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.52% per annum.
- CI price at the close of February 28, 2025 was $308.85 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 16, 2024
End date: February 28, 2025
a = 3.1125
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0184
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 68.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0184) – 1
= 7.65%
December 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1125 + 0.0014 × 1,750 + 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(5.6479)
= $283.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1125 + 0.0014 × 1,750 – 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(5.5743)
= $263.55
February 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1125 + 0.0014 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(5.7536)
= $315.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1125 + 0.0014 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(5.6799)
= $292.92
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 68.39% per annum.
- CI price at the close of February 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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