Stock Analysis on Net

Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE:LMT)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 69.45% per annum.
  • LMT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $533.26 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $32.39 (5.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 66.16% per annum.
  • LMT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LMT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 24, 2024
End date: October 25, 2024

a = 3.7812

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0407

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 69.45%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0407) – 1
= 17.70%

January 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,049)
= Exp(a + b × X1,049 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,526 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7812 + 0.0014 × 1,526 + 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(6.0675)
= $431.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,049)
= Exp(a + b × X1,049 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,526 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7812 + 0.0014 × 1,526 – 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(5.9045)
= $366.69

October 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7812 + 0.0014 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(6.4648)
= $642.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7812 + 0.0014 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(6.3019)
= $545.58

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 69.45% per annum.
  • LMT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $533.26 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $32.39 (5.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 1, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 11.7005

b = -0.0030

s = 0.0256

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0030) – 1
= -66.16%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0256) – 1
= 10.80%

October 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7005 + -0.0030 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(6.4764)
= $649.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7005 + -0.0030 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(6.3739)
= $586.33

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7005 + -0.0030 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(6.3310)
= $561.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7005 + -0.0030 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(6.2284)
= $506.95

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 66.16% per annum.
  • LMT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
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