Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.24% per annum.
- HON price at the close of September 25, 2026 was $212.55 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 70.39% per annum.
- HON price at the close of September 25, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.58 (0.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HON price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2026
End date: September 25, 2026
a = 5.6328
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0438
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0438) – 1
= 19.14%
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y140)
= Exp(a + b × X140 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6328 + -0.0006 × 203 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(5.6015)
= $270.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y140)
= Exp(a + b × X140 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6328 + -0.0006 × 203 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(5.4263)
= $227.31
September 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6328 + -0.0006 × 437 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(5.4645)
= $236.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6328 + -0.0006 × 437 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(5.2893)
= $198.20
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.24% per annum.
- HON price at the close of September 25, 2026 was $212.55 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 23, 2026
End date: September 25, 2026
a = 6.7554
b = -0.0033
s = 0.0291
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0033) – 1
= -70.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0291) – 1
= 12.34%
July 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y257)
= Exp(a + b × X257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 373 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7554 + -0.0033 × 373 + 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(5.5698)
= $262.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y257)
= Exp(a + b × X257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 373 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7554 + -0.0033 × 373 – 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(5.4535)
= $233.58
September 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7554 + -0.0033 × 437 + 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(5.3564)
= $211.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7554 + -0.0033 × 437 – 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(5.2401)
= $188.69
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 70.39% per annum.
- HON price at the close of September 25, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.58 (0.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.