Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 78.78% per annum.
- GE price at the close of September 28, 2026 was $318.24 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.98 (2.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 149.07% per annum.
- GE price at the close of September 28, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 3, 2026
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 7.7247
b = -0.0042
s = 0.0172
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0042) – 1
= -78.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0172) – 1
= 7.12%
August 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y288)
= Exp(a + b × X288 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7247 + -0.0042 × 420 + 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(5.9753)
= $393.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y288)
= Exp(a + b × X288 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7247 + -0.0042 × 420 – 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(5.9065)
= $367.43
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y321)
= Exp(a + b × X321 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 466 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7247 + -0.0042 × 466 + 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(5.7799)
= $323.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y321)
= Exp(a + b × X321 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 466 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7247 + -0.0042 × 466 – 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(5.7111)
= $302.22
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 78.78% per annum.
- GE price at the close of September 28, 2026 was $318.24 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.98 (2.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 14, 2026
End date: September 28, 2026
a = 4.5884
b = 0.0025
s = 0.0121
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 149.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0121) – 1
= 4.98%
September 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5884 + 0.0025 × 462 + 2 × 0.0121)
= Exp(5.7678)
= $319.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5884 + 0.0025 × 462 – 2 × 0.0121)
= Exp(5.7192)
= $304.67
September 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y327)
= Exp(a + b × X327 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 476 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5884 + 0.0025 × 476 + 2 × 0.0121)
= Exp(5.8028)
= $331.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y327)
= Exp(a + b × X327 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 476 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5884 + 0.0025 × 476 – 2 × 0.0121)
= Exp(5.7542)
= $315.52
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 149.07% per annum.
- GE price at the close of September 28, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.