Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 79.23% per annum.
- GE price at the close of February 18, 2026 was $329.58 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 55.97% per annum.
- GE price at the close of February 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 9, 2022
End date: January 21, 2026
a = 2.9897
b = 0.0016
s = 0.1004
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 79.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1004) – 1
= 49.40%
May 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9897 + 0.0016 × 444 + 2 × 0.1004)
= Exp(3.9002)
= $49.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9897 + 0.0016 × 444 – 2 × 0.1004)
= Exp(3.4988)
= $33.07
January 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9897 + 0.0016 × 1,797 + 2 × 0.1004)
= Exp(6.0632)
= $429.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9897 + 0.0016 × 1,797 – 2 × 0.1004)
= Exp(5.6617)
= $287.64
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 79.23% per annum.
- GE price at the close of February 18, 2026 was $329.58 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2024
End date: February 18, 2026
a = 3.5594
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0729
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0729) – 1
= 33.83%
March 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y766)
= Exp(a + b × X766 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,112 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5594 + 0.0012 × 1,112 + 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(5.0592)
= $157.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y766)
= Exp(a + b × X766 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,112 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5594 + 0.0012 × 1,112 – 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(4.7678)
= $117.66
February 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5594 + 0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(5.9275)
= $375.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5594 + 0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(5.6361)
= $280.36
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 55.97% per annum.
- GE price at the close of February 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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