Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 64.52% per annum.
- GE price at the close of October 26, 2026 was $288.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.14% per annum.
- GE price at the close of October 26, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 31, 2026
End date: October 26, 2026
a = 6.8456
b = -0.0028
s = 0.0241
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -64.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0241) – 1
= 10.12%
July 31, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y225)
= Exp(a + b × X225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 326 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8456 + -0.0028 × 326 + 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(5.9684)
= $390.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y225)
= Exp(a + b × X225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 326 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8456 + -0.0028 × 326 – 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(5.8720)
= $354.96
October 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8456 + -0.0028 × 413 + 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(5.7215)
= $305.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8456 + -0.0028 × 413 – 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(5.6250)
= $277.28
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 64.52% per annum.
- GE price at the close of October 26, 2026 was $288.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 31, 2026
End date: October 26, 2026
a = 6.5254
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0197
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -52.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0197) – 1
= 8.21%
August 31, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y246)
= Exp(a + b × X246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 357 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5254 + -0.0020 × 357 + 2 × 0.0197)
= Exp(5.8441)
= $345.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y246)
= Exp(a + b × X246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 357 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5254 + -0.0020 × 357 – 2 × 0.0197)
= Exp(5.7652)
= $319.02
October 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5254 + -0.0020 × 413 + 2 × 0.0197)
= Exp(5.7311)
= $308.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5254 + -0.0020 × 413 – 2 × 0.0197)
= Exp(5.6522)
= $284.91
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.14% per annum.
- GE price at the close of October 26, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.