Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 95.38% per annum.
- GE price at the close of January 17, 2025 was $182.85 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.97 (3.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.73% per annum.
- GE price at the close of January 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: November 29, 2024
a = 2.0692
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0869
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 95.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0869) – 1
= 41.54%
June 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y603)
= Exp(a + b × X603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 871 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0692 + 0.0018 × 871 + 2 × 0.0869)
= Exp(3.8413)
= $46.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y603)
= Exp(a + b × X603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 871 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0692 + 0.0018 × 871 – 2 × 0.0869)
= Exp(3.4938)
= $32.91
November 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0692 + 0.0018 × 1,774 + 2 × 0.0869)
= Exp(5.4983)
= $244.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0692 + 0.0018 × 1,774 – 2 × 0.0869)
= Exp(5.1509)
= $172.58
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 95.38% per annum.
- GE price at the close of January 17, 2025 was $182.85 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.97 (3.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 5, 2024
End date: January 17, 2025
a = 4.3032
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0445
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0445) – 1
= 19.47%
April 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,536 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3032 + 0.0005 × 1,536 + 2 × 0.0445)
= Exp(5.1498)
= $172.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,536 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3032 + 0.0005 × 1,536 – 2 × 0.0445)
= Exp(4.9719)
= $144.31
January 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3032 + 0.0005 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0445)
= Exp(5.2914)
= $198.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3032 + 0.0005 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0445)
= Exp(5.1135)
= $166.25
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.73% per annum.
- GE price at the close of January 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out GE and 1,499 other stocks on our new website