Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 361.29% per annum.
- GE price at the close of August 3, 2026 was $368.93 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $28.65 (7.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.69% per annum.
- GE price at the close of August 3, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 21, 2026
End date: July 7, 2026
a = 4.2842
b = 0.0042
s = 0.0290
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0042) – 1
= 361.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0290) – 1
= 12.30%
April 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y217)
= Exp(a + b × X217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2842 + 0.0042 × 316 + 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(5.6658)
= $288.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y217)
= Exp(a + b × X217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2842 + 0.0042 × 316 – 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(5.5498)
= $257.18
July 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y269)
= Exp(a + b × X269 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 393 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2842 + 0.0042 × 393 + 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(5.9883)
= $398.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y269)
= Exp(a + b × X269 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 393 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2842 + 0.0042 × 393 – 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(5.8723)
= $355.07
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 361.29% per annum.
- GE price at the close of August 3, 2026 was $368.93 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $28.65 (7.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 17, 2026
End date: July 31, 2026
a = 6.2806
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0263
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0263) – 1
= 11.09%
June 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y257)
= Exp(a + b × X257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 373 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2806 + -0.0010 × 373 + 2 × 0.0263)
= Exp(5.9586)
= $387.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y257)
= Exp(a + b × X257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 373 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2806 + -0.0010 × 373 – 2 × 0.0263)
= Exp(5.8534)
= $348.41
July 31, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2806 + -0.0010 × 417 + 2 × 0.0263)
= Exp(5.9144)
= $370.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2806 + -0.0010 × 417 – 2 × 0.0263)
= Exp(5.8092)
= $333.35
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.69% per annum.
- GE price at the close of August 3, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.