Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 69.16% per annum.
- GE price at the close of October 12, 2026 was $308.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.91% per annum.
- GE price at the close of October 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 3, 2026
End date: October 9, 2026
a = 6.9821
b = -0.0032
s = 0.0214
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0032) – 1
= -69.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0214) – 1
= 8.95%
August 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y226)
= Exp(a + b × X226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 329 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9821 + -0.0032 × 329 + 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(5.9647)
= $389.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y226)
= Exp(a + b × X226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 329 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9821 + -0.0032 × 329 – 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(5.8790)
= $357.44
October 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y274)
= Exp(a + b × X274 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 396 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9821 + -0.0032 × 396 + 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(5.7488)
= $313.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y274)
= Exp(a + b × X274 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 396 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9821 + -0.0032 × 396 – 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(5.6630)
= $288.02
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 69.16% per annum.
- GE price at the close of October 12, 2026 was $308.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 9, 2026
End date: October 12, 2026
a = 6.2837
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0160
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0160) – 1
= 6.60%
September 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 366 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2837 + -0.0014 × 366 + 2 × 0.0160)
= Exp(5.8050)
= $331.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 366 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2837 + -0.0014 × 366 – 2 × 0.0160)
= Exp(5.7411)
= $311.41
October 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y275)
= Exp(a + b × X275 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2837 + -0.0014 × 399 + 2 × 0.0160)
= Exp(5.7590)
= $317.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y275)
= Exp(a + b × X275 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2837 + -0.0014 × 399 – 2 × 0.0160)
= Exp(5.6951)
= $297.39
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.91% per annum.
- GE price at the close of October 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.