Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 54.42% per annum.
- ETN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $276.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.69% per annum.
- ETN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ETN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 8, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025
a = 9.5629
b = -0.0022
s = 0.0389
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -54.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0389) – 1
= 16.85%
November 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5629 + -0.0022 × 1,681 + 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(6.0221)
= $412.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5629 + -0.0022 × 1,681 – 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(5.8664)
= $352.96
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5629 + -0.0022 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(5.7121)
= $302.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5629 + -0.0022 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(5.5564)
= $258.88
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 54.42% per annum.
- ETN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $276.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 24, 2025
End date: April 1, 2025
a = 6.0018
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0302
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0302) – 1
= 12.83%
February 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0018 + -0.0002 × 1,789 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.7229)
= $305.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0018 + -0.0002 × 1,789 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.6022)
= $271.02
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0018 + -0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.7161)
= $303.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0018 + -0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.5954)
= $269.18
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.69% per annum.
- ETN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out ETN and 1,499 other stocks on our new website