Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 197.21% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of August 14, 2026 was $222.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 570.01% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of August 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RTX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 15, 2026
End date: August 14, 2026
a = 4.2165
b = 0.0030
s = 0.0264
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0030) – 1
= 197.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0264) – 1
= 11.13%
May 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y211)
= Exp(a + b × X211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 304 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2165 + 0.0030 × 304 + 2 × 0.0264)
= Exp(5.1765)
= $177.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y211)
= Exp(a + b × X211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 304 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2165 + 0.0030 × 304 – 2 × 0.0264)
= Exp(5.0709)
= $159.32
August 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 395 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2165 + 0.0030 × 395 + 2 × 0.0264)
= Exp(5.4481)
= $232.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 395 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2165 + 0.0030 × 395 – 2 × 0.0264)
= Exp(5.3425)
= $209.03
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 197.21% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of August 14, 2026 was $222.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 13, 2026
End date: August 14, 2026
a = 3.3725
b = 0.0052
s = 0.0253
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0052) – 1
= 570.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0253) – 1
= 10.64%
July 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y249)
= Exp(a + b × X249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 363 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3725 + 0.0052 × 363 + 2 × 0.0253)
= Exp(5.3148)
= $203.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y249)
= Exp(a + b × X249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 363 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3725 + 0.0052 × 363 – 2 × 0.0253)
= Exp(5.2137)
= $183.77
August 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 395 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3725 + 0.0052 × 395 + 2 × 0.0253)
= Exp(5.4815)
= $240.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 395 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3725 + 0.0052 × 395 – 2 × 0.0253)
= Exp(5.3804)
= $217.11
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 570.01% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of August 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.