Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 67.47% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $118.96 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.61 (2.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.80% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RTX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 11, 2023
End date: October 30, 2024
a = 2.2938
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0323
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 67.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0323) – 1
= 13.81%
September 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y956)
= Exp(a + b × X956 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,391 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2938 + 0.0014 × 1,391 + 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(4.3235)
= $75.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y956)
= Exp(a + b × X956 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,391 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2938 + 0.0014 × 1,391 – 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(4.1942)
= $66.30
October 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2938 + 0.0014 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(4.9097)
= $135.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2938 + 0.0014 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(4.7804)
= $119.15
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 67.47% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $118.96 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.61 (2.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 30, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.7909
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0207
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0207) – 1
= 8.65%
July 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7909 + 0.0006 × 1,714 + 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(4.7967)
= $121.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7909 + 0.0006 × 1,714 – 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(4.7138)
= $111.47
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7909 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(4.8598)
= $128.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7909 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(4.7768)
= $118.73
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.80% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out RTX and 1,499 other stocks on our new website