Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 60.73% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of November 12, 2026 was $198.36 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $19.77 (11.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 110.44% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of November 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RTX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 23, 2026
End date: October 15, 2026
a = 6.3750
b = -0.0026
s = 0.0261
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -60.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0261) – 1
= 11.00%
July 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y257)
= Exp(a + b × X257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 373 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3750 + -0.0026 × 373 + 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(5.4719)
= $237.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y257)
= Exp(a + b × X257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 373 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3750 + -0.0026 × 373 – 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(5.3675)
= $214.33
October 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y316)
= Exp(a + b × X316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3750 + -0.0026 × 457 + 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(5.2568)
= $191.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y316)
= Exp(a + b × X316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3750 + -0.0026 × 457 – 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(5.1524)
= $172.85
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 60.73% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of November 12, 2026 was $198.36 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $19.77 (11.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 28, 2026
End date: November 12, 2026
a = 4.3129
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0192
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 110.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0192) – 1
= 8.00%
September 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 440 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3129 + 0.0020 × 440 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(5.2483)
= $190.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 440 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3129 + 0.0020 × 440 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(5.1714)
= $176.16
November 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y336)
= Exp(a + b × X336 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 485 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3129 + 0.0020 × 485 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(5.3400)
= $208.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y336)
= Exp(a + b × X336 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 485 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3129 + 0.0020 × 485 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(5.2631)
= $193.08
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 110.44% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of November 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.