Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 67.47% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $133.15 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $14.21 (9.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.23% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RTX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 11, 2023
End date: October 30, 2024
a = 2.4794
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0323
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 67.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0323) – 1
= 13.81%
September 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y864)
= Exp(a + b × X864 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4794 + 0.0014 × 1,256 + 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(4.3184)
= $75.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y864)
= Exp(a + b × X864 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4794 + 0.0014 × 1,256 – 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(4.1891)
= $65.96
October 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,671 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4794 + 0.0014 × 1,671 + 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(4.9046)
= $134.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,671 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4794 + 0.0014 × 1,671 – 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(4.7753)
= $118.55
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 67.47% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $133.15 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $14.21 (9.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 25, 2024
End date: March 14, 2025
a = 4.1752
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0315
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0315) – 1
= 13.43%
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,574 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1752 + 0.0004 × 1,574 + 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(4.8120)
= $122.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,574 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1752 + 0.0004 × 1,574 – 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(4.6860)
= $108.42
March 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1752 + 0.0004 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(4.8966)
= $133.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1752 + 0.0004 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(4.7706)
= $117.99
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.23% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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