Stock Analysis on Net

Autodesk Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK)

This company has been moved to the archive! The financial data has not been updated since December 3, 2024.

Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) 

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Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Autodesk Inc., free cash flow to equity (FCFE) forecast

US$ in millions, except per share data

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Year Value FCFEt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at 19.77%
01 FCFE0 1,252
1 FCFE1 1,941 = 1,252 × (1 + 55.06%) 1,621
2 FCFE2 2,828 = 1,941 × (1 + 45.66%) 1,971
3 FCFE3 3,854 = 2,828 × (1 + 36.27%) 2,243
4 FCFE4 4,889 = 3,854 × (1 + 26.88%) 2,376
5 FCFE5 5,744 = 4,889 × (1 + 17.49%) 2,330
5 Terminal value (TV5) 294,907 = 5,744 × (1 + 17.49%) ÷ (19.77%17.49%) 119,634
Intrinsic value of Autodesk Inc. common stock 130,175
 
Intrinsic value of Autodesk Inc. common stock (per share) $605.46
Current share price $298.96

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-01-31).

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.


Required Rate of Return (r)

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Assumptions
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF 4.64%
Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM) 14.89%
Systematic risk of Autodesk Inc. common stock βADSK 1.48
 
Required rate of return on Autodesk Inc. common stock3 rADSK 19.77%

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

2 See details »

3 rADSK = RF + βADSK [E(RM) – RF]
= 4.64% + 1.48 [14.89%4.64%]
= 19.77%


FCFE Growth Rate (g)

FCFE growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Autodesk Inc., PRAT model

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Average Jan 31, 2024 Jan 31, 2023 Jan 31, 2022 Jan 31, 2021 Jan 31, 2020 Jan 31, 2019
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Net income (loss) 906 823 497 1,208 215 (81)
Net revenue 5,497 5,005 4,386 3,790 3,274 2,570
Total assets 9,912 9,438 8,607 7,280 6,179 4,729
Stockholders’ equity (deficit) 1,855 1,145 849 966 (139) (211)
Financial Ratios
Retention rate1 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Profit margin2 16.48% 16.44% 11.33% 31.88% 6.55% -3.14%
Asset turnover3 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.54
Financial leverage4 5.34 8.24 10.14 7.54
Averages
Retention rate 1.00
Profit margin 13.26%
Asset turnover 0.53
Financial leverage 7.82
 
FCFE growth rate (g)5 55.06%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-01-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-01-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-01-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-01-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-01-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-01-31).

2024 Calculations

1 Company does not pay dividends

2 Profit margin = 100 × Net income (loss) ÷ Net revenue
= 100 × 906 ÷ 5,497
= 16.48%

3 Asset turnover = Net revenue ÷ Total assets
= 5,497 ÷ 9,912
= 0.55

4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Stockholders’ equity (deficit)
= 9,912 ÷ 1,855
= 5.34

5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= 1.00 × 13.26% × 0.53 × 7.82
= 55.06%


FCFE growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Equity market value0 × r – FCFE0) ÷ (Equity market value0 + FCFE0)
= 100 × (64,276 × 19.77%1,252) ÷ (64,276 + 1,252)
= 17.49%

where:
Equity market value0 = current market value of Autodesk Inc. common stock (US$ in millions)
FCFE0 = the last year Autodesk Inc. free cash flow to equity (US$ in millions)
r = required rate of return on Autodesk Inc. common stock


FCFE growth rate (g) forecast

Autodesk Inc., H-model

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Year Value gt
1 g1 55.06%
2 g2 45.66%
3 g3 36.27%
4 g4 26.88%
5 and thereafter g5 17.49%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpolation between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 55.06% + (17.49%55.06%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 45.66%

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 55.06% + (17.49%55.06%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 36.27%

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 55.06% + (17.49%55.06%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 26.88%