Stock Analysis on Net
Stock Analysis on Net

Autodesk Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK)

$22.49

This company has been moved to the archive! The financial data has not been updated since December 3, 2021.

Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)

Microsoft Excel

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is generally described as cash flows available to the equity holder after payments to debt holders and after allowing for expenditures to maintain the company asset base.

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Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Autodesk Inc., free cash flow to equity (FCFE) forecast

US$ in thousands, except per share data

Microsoft Excel
Year Value FCFEt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at
01 FCFE0
1 FCFE1 = × (1 + )
2 FCFE2 = × (1 + )
3 FCFE3 = × (1 + )
4 FCFE4 = × (1 + )
5 FCFE5 = × (1 + )
5 Terminal value (TV5) = × (1 + ) ÷ ( – )
Intrinsic value of Autodesk Inc. common stock
 
Intrinsic value of Autodesk Inc. common stock (per share)
Current share price

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-01-31).

1 See details »

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.

Required Rate of Return (r)

Microsoft Excel
Assumptions
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF
Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM)
Systematic risk of Autodesk Inc. common stock βADSK
 
Required rate of return on Autodesk Inc. common stock3 rADSK

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

2 See details »

3 rADSK = RF + βADSK [E(RM) – RF]
= + [ – ]
=

FCFE Growth Rate (g)

FCFE growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Autodesk Inc., PRAT model

Microsoft Excel
Average Jan 31, 2021 Jan 31, 2020 Jan 31, 2019 Jan 31, 2018 Jan 31, 2017 Jan 31, 2016
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Net income (loss)
Net revenue
Total assets
Stockholders’ equity (deficit)
Financial Ratios
Retention rate1
Profit margin2
Asset turnover3
Financial leverage4
Averages
Retention rate
Profit margin
Asset turnover
Financial leverage
 
FCFE growth rate (g)5

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-01-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-01-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-01-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-01-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2017-01-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2016-01-31).

2021 Calculations

1 Company does not pay dividends

2 Profit margin = 100 × Net income (loss) ÷ Net revenue
= 100 × ÷
=

3 Asset turnover = Net revenue ÷ Total assets
= ÷
=

4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Stockholders’ equity (deficit)
= ÷
=

5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= × × ×
=

FCFE growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Equity market value0 × r – FCFE0) ÷ (Equity market value0 + FCFE0)
= 100 × ( × – ) ÷ ( + )
=

where:
Equity market value0 = current market value of Autodesk Inc. common stock (US$ in thousands)
FCFE0 = the last year Autodesk Inc. free cash flow to equity (US$ in thousands)
r = required rate of return on Autodesk Inc. common stock

FCFE growth rate (g) forecast

Autodesk Inc., H-model

Microsoft Excel
Year Value gt
1 g1
2 g2
3 g3
4 g4
5 and thereafter g5

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=

g3 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=

g4 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=