Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 86.89% per annum.
- ADSK price at the close of December 3, 2024 was $298.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 130.41% per annum.
- ADSK price at the close of December 3, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.68 (0.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADSK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 17, 2024
End date: December 3, 2024
a = 2.5960
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0353
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 86.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0353) – 1
= 15.15%
April 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,098)
= Exp(a + b × X1,098 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,596 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5960 + 0.0017 × 1,596 + 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(5.4009)
= $221.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,098)
= Exp(a + b × X1,098 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,596 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5960 + 0.0017 × 1,596 – 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(5.2598)
= $192.44
December 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5960 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(5.7949)
= $328.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5960 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(5.6538)
= $285.38
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 86.89% per annum.
- ADSK price at the close of December 3, 2024 was $298.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 1, 2024
End date: December 3, 2024
a = 1.5774
b = 0.0023
s = 0.0236
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 130.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0236) – 1
= 9.92%
August 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,702 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5774 + 0.0023 × 1,702 + 2 × 0.0236)
= Exp(5.5169)
= $248.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,702 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5774 + 0.0023 × 1,702 – 2 × 0.0236)
= Exp(5.4223)
= $226.41
December 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5774 + 0.0023 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0236)
= Exp(5.8005)
= $330.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5774 + 0.0023 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0236)
= Exp(5.7059)
= $300.64
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 130.41% per annum.
- ADSK price at the close of December 3, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.68 (0.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Check current ADSK price trends.
Visit our new 1,500-company website