Autodesk Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK)

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)

The net operating profit after taxes exhibited significant fluctuation over the observed periods. Initially, there was a substantial increase from 41 million in early 2019 to a peak of 1197 million in 2020. This was followed by a decline to 833 million in 2021, a slight recovery to 970 million in 2022, and a renewed increase to 1402 million in 2023. However, this positive trend reversed sharply in 2024, with NOPAT dropping to 493 million.

Cost of Capital

The cost of capital remained relatively stable throughout the periods, ranging narrowly between 18.46% and 19.09%. There were minor fluctuations, with the lowest value recorded in 2020 at 18.46% and a gradual increase toward 18.89% in 2024. This stability suggests consistent market or operational risk levels over the years.

Invested Capital

Invested capital demonstrated a general upward trend from 4412 million in 2019 to a peak of 7372 million in 2023, indicating ongoing investments or asset growth. A slight decrease was observed in 2024, where invested capital marginally reduced to 7325 million, which could reflect divestments, depreciation, or revaluation adjustments.

Economic Profit

The economic profit figures showed considerable volatility, with predominantly negative values across the years. After a deep negative economic profit of -790 million in 2019, there was a positive swing to 175 million in 2020, suggesting a period of value creation. This was followed by consecutive negative economic profits in 2021 (-260 million) and 2022 (-296 million), a minor positive in 2023 (16 million), and a notable decline to -891 million in 2024. The fluctuations indicate challenges in generating returns above the cost of capital, with only brief intervals of marginal economic value addition.

Net Income (Loss)

The net income demonstrates significant fluctuations over the observed periods. Starting from a loss of US$81 million in January 2019, the company experienced a substantial turnaround, achieving a positive net income of US$215 million in January 2020. This upward trend accelerated noticeably in January 2021, reaching a peak of US$1,208 million. Subsequently, net income declined to US$497 million in January 2022 but rebounded to US$823 million in January 2023 and further increased to US$906 million by January 2024. The data suggests a period of recovery and growth following an initial loss, followed by some volatility, with the most recent figures indicating a strengthening profit position.

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)

NOPAT shows a rising trend from January 2019 through January 2023, starting at US$41 million and climbing consistently to a peak of US$1,402 million in January 2023. After a low base in 2019, there was a rapid increase to US$1,197 million in 2020, followed by a decrease to US$833 million in January 2021. NOPAT then resumed growth with US$970 million in January 2022 and peaked notably in January 2023. However, in January 2024, NOPAT declined sharply to US$493 million. This pattern indicates periods of strong operational profitability, especially between 2020 and 2023, though the most recent year shows a significant reduction.

The financial data indicates notable fluctuations in both the income tax provision (benefit) and cash operating taxes over the analyzed periods.

Income Tax Provision (Benefit)

The income tax provision demonstrates considerable volatility throughout the periods. Initially, it increased from 38 million USD in 2019 to 80 million USD in 2020, indicating a rising tax expense. However, in 2021, there is a significant benefit recorded, reflected by a negative provision of -662 million USD, which represents a tax benefit rather than an expense. This sharp reversal may suggest extraordinary tax adjustments or recognition of deferred tax assets during that period. Subsequent years show a return to positive provisions, rising from 68 million USD in 2022 to 123 million USD in 2023, and reaching 230 million USD in 2024, indicating increased tax expenses once again. Overall, the income tax provision reflects uneven tax charges with an exceptional benefit in 2021 followed by increasing tax liabilities.

Cash Operating Taxes

Cash operating taxes display a generally upward trend across the years, with some variation in magnitude. Starting at 64 million USD in 2019, cash taxes increased slightly to 82 million USD in 2020. A more substantial rise is seen in 2021 with 130 million USD, despite the negative income tax provision in the same year, suggesting a divergence between cash taxes paid and accounting tax charges. Cash taxes decreased to 100 million USD in 2022 but then surged significantly to 415 million USD in 2023 before declining to 310 million USD in 2024. This pattern indicates increasing cash tax outflows, peaking in 2023, which might reflect higher taxable income or changes in tax payment schedules.

In summary, the data reveal inconsistencies between accounting tax provisions and cash tax payments, particularly highlighted by the negative income tax provision in 2021 juxtaposed with rising cash operating taxes. The overall trend suggests increasing tax-related cash outflows in recent years, and significant fluctuations in tax accounting entries, which could be attributable to changes in tax regulations, one-time adjustments, or differences in timing between tax accruals and payments.

The financial data presents a mixed set of trends over the six-year period ending in January 2024. The following analysis focuses on the reported debt and leases, stockholders’ equity, and invested capital, highlighting significant movements and potential implications.

Total Reported Debt & Leases

The debt and lease obligations experienced fluctuations over the period. Starting at 2,445 million USD in early 2019, the total increased slightly to 2,545 million USD by 2020, followed by a noticeable reduction to 2,105 million USD in 2021. However, debt levels surged again in 2022, reaching 3,060 million USD, which is the highest in the provided timeframe. Subsequently, it declined to 2,666 million USD in 2023 and further to 2,626 million USD in early 2024. The pattern suggests an overall cyclical adjustment in financing strategy, with a peak possibly reflecting increased borrowing or lease arrangements in 2022, and partial deleveraging thereafter.

Stockholders’ Equity (Deficit)

The stockholders’ equity profile shows a significant transformation from a deficit position to a positive equity base. At the start of 2019, equity was negative at -211 million USD, indicating liabilities exceeded assets. This deficit narrowed to -139 million USD in 2020 before turning positive at 966 million USD in 2021. Although there was a slight decrease to 849 million USD in 2022, the trend reversed with equity rising substantially to 1,145 million USD in 2023 and 1,855 million USD in 2024. This improvement demonstrates strengthening financial health, reflecting either retained earnings growth, capital injections, or asset revaluation effectively reducing the deficit and building shareholder value.

Invested Capital

Invested capital steadily increased over the analyzed periods. Commencing at 4,412 million USD in 2019, it rose to 5,535 million USD in 2020, and 5,723 million USD in 2021. Growth accelerated in the following years, reaching 6,835 million USD in 2022, peaking at 7,372 million USD in 2023, and slightly declining to 7,325 million USD in 2024. The general upward movement of invested capital suggests ongoing investments in operations, fixed assets, or other long-term assets, supporting expansion or optimization strategies. The marginal drop in 2024 may reflect asset disposals or adjustments but does not significantly reverse the growth trend.

In summary, the company's financial structure demonstrates evolving leverage with a notable peak in debt in 2022, followed by partial reduction. Simultaneously, a transition from equity deficit to a positive and growing equity base indicates improving solvency and capital adequacy. Continuous increases in invested capital highlight sustained investment activity, supporting business growth and operational capacity enhancement.

The financial data reveals fluctuating trends in key economic performance indicators over the six-year period.

Economic Profit

The economic profit shows significant volatility. It experienced a negative value of -790 million USD in early 2019, improved sharply to a positive 175 million USD in 2020, but then declined again to negative values in the subsequent years. The figures remained negative for 2021 and 2022, slightly rose to a marginal positive value of 16 million USD in 2023, and subsequently fell back to a substantial negative value of -891 million USD in 2024. This pattern indicates inconsistency in generating economic profit, with substantial losses recorded in the most recent year.

Invested Capital

Invested capital showed a generally upward trend over the period, increasing from 4,412 million USD in 2019 to a peak of 7,372 million USD in 2023. However, there was a slight decrease to 7,325 million USD in 2024. This overall growth in invested capital suggests ongoing investments and asset accumulation until 2023, followed by a minor contraction in the following year.

Economic Spread Ratio

The economic spread ratio, expressed as a percentage, displayed considerable variation. It started with a significant negative spread of -17.9% in 2019 but improved to a positive 3.15% in 2020. Following this, it reverted to negative values from 2021 through 2022 (-4.54% and -4.33%, respectively), became slightly positive at 0.22% in 2023, and then declined sharply to -12.16% in 2024. This fluctuation reflects instability in returns above the cost of capital, with notable deterioration in the most recent year.

Adjusted Net Revenue

The adjusted net revenue exhibited an overall increasing trend from 2019 to 2023, rising from $2,706 million in 2019 to a peak of $5,795 million in 2023. However, the year ending January 2024 saw a decline to $5,181 million, indicating a potential contraction or slowdown after several years of growth.

Economic Profit

Economic profit showed significant volatility over the analyzed periods. Starting at a negative value of -$790 million in 2019, it improved sharply to a positive $175 million in 2020. However, it returned to negative territory in the subsequent years, with values fluctuating between -$260 million and -$296 million in 2021 and 2022, a brief return to a positive $16 million in 2023, and a considerable drop to -$891 million in 2024. This volatility suggests challenges in sustaining profitability despite revenue growth.

Economic Profit Margin

The economic profit margin mirrored the instability seen in economic profit figures. It moved from a strongly negative margin of -29.18% in 2019 to a positive 4.17% in 2020, followed by a decline back to negative margins around -6.27% and -6.14% in 2021 and 2022. The margin improved slightly to 0.28% in 2023, then dramatically deteriorated to -17.19% in 2024. The margins indicate fluctuating profitability relative to revenue, with evident difficulties maintaining positive returns.

Overall, while adjusted net revenue consistently increased over several years before declining in 2024, economic profit and its margin were considerably unstable, with frequent movements between negative and slightly positive values. The substantial drop in economic profit and margin in 2024, despite relatively high revenue, suggests increased costs, reduced efficiency, or other financial pressures that negatively impacted profitability.