Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 181.83% per annum.
- AXON price at the close of May 9, 2023 was $226.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.96% per annum.
- AXON price at the close of May 9, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AXON price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2022
End date: May 9, 2023
a = 0.3285
b = 0.0028
s = 0.0844
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 181.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0844) – 1
= 40.14%
May 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,005)
= Exp(a + b × X1,005 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,457 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3285 + 0.0028 × 1,457 + 2 × 0.0844)
= Exp(4.6332)
= $102.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,005)
= Exp(a + b × X1,005 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,457 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3285 + 0.0028 × 1,457 – 2 × 0.0844)
= Exp(4.2958)
= $73.39
May 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3285 + 0.0028 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0844)
= Exp(5.6779)
= $292.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3285 + 0.0028 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0844)
= Exp(5.3404)
= $208.60
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 181.83% per annum.
- AXON price at the close of May 9, 2023 was $226.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2023
End date: May 9, 2023
a = 4.7941
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0197
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0197) – 1
= 8.18%
March 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7941 + 0.0003 × 1,756 + 2 × 0.0197)
= Exp(5.4196)
= $225.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7941 + 0.0003 × 1,756 – 2 × 0.0197)
= Exp(5.3410)
= $208.72
May 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7941 + 0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0197)
= Exp(5.4426)
= $231.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7941 + 0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0197)
= Exp(5.3640)
= $213.58
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.96% per annum.
- AXON price at the close of May 9, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
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