Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.81% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of October 9, 2026 was $361.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 132.81% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of October 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVGO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2026
End date: October 9, 2026
a = 6.3185
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0492
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0492) – 1
= 21.76%
April 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y166)
= Exp(a + b × X166 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3185 + -0.0011 × 243 + 2 × 0.0492)
= Exp(6.1523)
= $469.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y166)
= Exp(a + b × X166 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3185 + -0.0011 × 243 – 2 × 0.0492)
= Exp(5.9553)
= $385.81
October 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3185 + -0.0011 × 413 + 2 × 0.0492)
= Exp(5.9670)
= $390.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3185 + -0.0011 × 413 – 2 × 0.0492)
= Exp(5.7701)
= $320.58
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.81% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of October 9, 2026 was $361.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 14, 2026
End date: October 9, 2026
a = 4.9447
b = 0.0023
s = 0.0231
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 132.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0231) – 1
= 9.69%
September 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y265)
= Exp(a + b × X265 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 388 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9447 + 0.0023 × 388 + 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(5.8893)
= $361.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y265)
= Exp(a + b × X265 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 388 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9447 + 0.0023 × 388 – 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(5.7968)
= $329.24
October 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9447 + 0.0023 × 413 + 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(5.9472)
= $382.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9447 + 0.0023 × 413 – 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(5.8547)
= $348.85
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 132.81% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of October 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.