Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.93% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of July 10, 2026 was $399.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 359.51% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of July 10, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVGO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2026
End date: July 8, 2026
a = 6.6714
b = -0.0018
s = 0.0514
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -47.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0514) – 1
= 22.81%
April 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y228)
= Exp(a + b × X228 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 334 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6714 + -0.0018 × 334 + 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(6.1769)
= $481.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y228)
= Exp(a + b × X228 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 334 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6714 + -0.0018 × 334 – 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(5.9715)
= $392.09
July 8, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y280)
= Exp(a + b × X280 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 411 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6714 + -0.0018 × 411 + 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(6.0392)
= $419.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y280)
= Exp(a + b × X280 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 411 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6714 + -0.0018 × 411 – 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(5.8338)
= $341.66
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.93% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of July 10, 2026 was $399.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 25, 2026
End date: July 10, 2026
a = 4.2381
b = 0.0042
s = 0.0286
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0042) – 1
= 359.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0286) – 1
= 12.13%
June 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y272)
= Exp(a + b × X272 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 398 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2381 + 0.0042 × 398 + 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(5.9582)
= $386.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y272)
= Exp(a + b × X272 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 398 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2381 + 0.0042 × 398 – 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(5.8438)
= $345.08
July 10, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2381 + 0.0042 × 413 + 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(6.0209)
= $411.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2381 + 0.0042 × 413 – 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(5.9064)
= $367.40
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 359.51% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of July 10, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.