Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.33% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of November 9, 2026 was $319.48 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.61% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of November 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVGO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2026
End date: November 9, 2026
a = 6.3769
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0505
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0505) – 1
= 22.40%
April 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y166)
= Exp(a + b × X166 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3769 + -0.0013 × 243 + 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(6.1668)
= $476.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y166)
= Exp(a + b × X166 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3769 + -0.0013 × 243 – 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(5.9647)
= $389.44
November 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y305)
= Exp(a + b × X305 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3769 + -0.0013 × 444 + 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(5.9095)
= $368.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y305)
= Exp(a + b × X305 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3769 + -0.0013 × 444 – 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(5.7073)
= $301.07
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.33% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of November 9, 2026 was $319.48 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 3, 2026
End date: November 9, 2026
a = 6.7829
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0437
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0437) – 1
= 19.10%
August 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y236)
= Exp(a + b × X236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 346 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7829 + -0.0023 × 346 + 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(6.0788)
= $436.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y236)
= Exp(a + b × X236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 346 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7829 + -0.0023 × 346 – 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(5.9041)
= $366.52
November 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y305)
= Exp(a + b × X305 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7829 + -0.0023 × 444 + 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(5.8546)
= $348.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y305)
= Exp(a + b × X305 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7829 + -0.0023 × 444 – 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(5.6799)
= $292.91
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.61% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of November 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.