Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.62% per annum.
- EXE price at the close of April 11, 2025 was $103.42 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.55 (11.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 125.01% per annum.
- EXE price at the close of April 11, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $9.97 (8.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EXE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 23, 2022
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 4.3987
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0791
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0791) – 1
= 37.24%
March 23, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 406 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3987 + 0.0000 × 406 + 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(4.5501)
= $94.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 406 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3987 + 0.0000 × 406 – 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(4.2335)
= $68.96
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y940)
= Exp(a + b × X940 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,364 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3987 + 0.0000 × 1,364 + 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(4.5338)
= $93.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y940)
= Exp(a + b × X940 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,364 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3987 + 0.0000 × 1,364 – 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(4.2172)
= $67.85
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.62% per annum.
- EXE price at the close of April 11, 2025 was $103.42 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.55 (11.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 24, 2024
End date: February 20, 2025
a = 1.4399
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0443
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 125.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0443) – 1
= 19.37%
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y867)
= Exp(a + b × X867 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,260 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4399 + 0.0022 × 1,260 + 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(4.3280)
= $75.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y867)
= Exp(a + b × X867 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,260 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4399 + 0.0022 × 1,260 – 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(4.1510)
= $63.50
February 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,471 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4399 + 0.0022 × 1,471 + 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(4.7968)
= $121.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,471 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4399 + 0.0022 × 1,471 – 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(4.6198)
= $101.47
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 125.01% per annum.
- EXE price at the close of April 11, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $9.97 (8.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out EXE and 1,499 other stocks on our new website