Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 91.37% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of January 17, 2025 was $119.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 223.57% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of January 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ANET price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 15, 2022
End date: January 17, 2025
a = 1.5080
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0660
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 91.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0660) – 1
= 30.23%
December 15, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y733)
= Exp(a + b × X733 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,059 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5080 + 0.0018 × 1,059 + 2 × 0.0660)
= Exp(3.5232)
= $33.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y733)
= Exp(a + b × X733 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,059 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5080 + 0.0018 × 1,059 – 2 × 0.0660)
= Exp(3.2590)
= $26.02
January 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5080 + 0.0018 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0660)
= Exp(4.8817)
= $131.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5080 + 0.0018 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0660)
= Exp(4.6175)
= $101.24
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 91.37% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of January 17, 2025 was $119.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 12, 2024
End date: January 17, 2025
a = -1.0789
b = 0.0032
s = 0.0281
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 223.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0281) – 1
= 11.91%
November 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0789 + 0.0032 × 1,757 + 2 × 0.0281)
= Exp(4.6298)
= $102.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0789 + 0.0032 × 1,757 – 2 × 0.0281)
= Exp(4.5173)
= $91.59
January 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0789 + 0.0032 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0281)
= Exp(4.8421)
= $126.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0789 + 0.0032 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0281)
= Exp(4.7296)
= $113.25
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 223.57% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of January 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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