Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 174.93% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of August 7, 2026 was $313.33 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $36.94 (10.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 94.55% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of August 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AAPL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 6, 2026
End date: June 5, 2026
a = 4.5831
b = 0.0028
s = 0.0272
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 174.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0272) – 1
= 11.49%
March 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y224)
= Exp(a + b × X224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 326 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5831 + 0.0028 × 326 + 2 × 0.0272)
= Exp(5.5408)
= $254.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y224)
= Exp(a + b × X224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 326 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5831 + 0.0028 × 326 – 2 × 0.0272)
= Exp(5.4320)
= $228.61
June 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5831 + 0.0028 × 417 + 2 × 0.0272)
= Exp(5.7929)
= $327.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5831 + 0.0028 × 417 – 2 × 0.0272)
= Exp(5.6842)
= $294.17
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 174.93% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of August 7, 2026 was $313.33 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $36.94 (10.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 6, 2026
End date: August 7, 2026
a = 4.9263
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0397
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 94.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0397) – 1
= 17.22%
March 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y224)
= Exp(a + b × X224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 326 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9263 + 0.0018 × 326 + 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(5.6002)
= $270.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y224)
= Exp(a + b × X224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 326 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9263 + 0.0018 × 326 – 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(5.4412)
= $230.72
August 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y330)
= Exp(a + b × X330 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 480 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9263 + 0.0018 × 480 + 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(5.8809)
= $358.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y330)
= Exp(a + b × X330 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 480 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9263 + 0.0018 × 480 – 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(5.7220)
= $305.52
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 94.55% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of August 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.