Stock Analysis on Net

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 44.74% per annum.
  • AAPL price at the close of April 22, 2025 was $199.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 77.64% per annum.
  • AAPL price at the close of April 22, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AAPL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 3, 2024
End date: April 22, 2025

a = 8.2876

b = -0.0016

s = 0.0522

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.74%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0522) – 1
= 23.23%

December 3, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2876 + -0.0016 × 1,685 + 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(5.6535)
= $285.30

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2876 + -0.0016 × 1,685 – 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(5.4447)
= $231.52

April 22, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2876 + -0.0016 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(5.4260)
= $227.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2876 + -0.0016 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(5.2171)
= $184.41

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 44.74% per annum.
  • AAPL price at the close of April 22, 2025 was $199.74 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 13, 2025
End date: April 22, 2025

a = 12.7374

b = -0.0041

s = 0.0457

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0041) – 1
= -77.64%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0457) – 1
= 20.05%

February 13, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.7374 + -0.0041 × 1,757 + 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(5.6191)
= $275.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.7374 + -0.0041 × 1,757 – 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(5.4364)
= $229.60

April 22, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.7374 + -0.0041 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(5.3401)
= $208.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.7374 + -0.0041 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(5.1573)
= $173.70

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 77.64% per annum.
  • AAPL price at the close of April 22, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Stock Price Trends
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