Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.35% per annum.
- CSCO price at the close of October 29, 2026 was $108.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.53% per annum.
- CSCO price at the close of October 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CSCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 14, 2026
End date: October 29, 2026
a = 4.9454
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0338
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0338) – 1
= 14.47%
May 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y175)
= Exp(a + b × X175 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9454 + -0.0006 × 253 + 2 × 0.0338)
= Exp(4.8553)
= $128.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y175)
= Exp(a + b × X175 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9454 + -0.0006 × 253 – 2 × 0.0338)
= Exp(4.7202)
= $112.19
October 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 421 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9454 + -0.0006 × 421 + 2 × 0.0338)
= Exp(4.7506)
= $115.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 421 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9454 + -0.0006 × 421 – 2 × 0.0338)
= Exp(4.6155)
= $101.03
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.35% per annum.
- CSCO price at the close of October 29, 2026 was $108.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 18, 2026
End date: October 29, 2026
a = 4.6831
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0285
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0285) – 1
= 12.08%
August 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y240)
= Exp(a + b × X240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 349 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6831 + 0.0000 × 349 + 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(4.7546)
= $116.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y240)
= Exp(a + b × X240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 349 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6831 + 0.0000 × 349 – 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(4.6405)
= $103.60
October 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 421 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6831 + 0.0000 × 421 + 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(4.7576)
= $116.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 421 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6831 + 0.0000 × 421 – 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(4.6435)
= $103.91
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.53% per annum.
- CSCO price at the close of October 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.