Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 69.00% per annum.
- CSCO price at the close of February 28, 2025 was $64.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.37% per annum.
- CSCO price at the close of February 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CSCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 28, 2024
End date: February 28, 2025
a = 1.5481
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0287
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 69.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0287) – 1
= 12.15%
May 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,067)
= Exp(a + b × X1,067 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,548 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5481 + 0.0014 × 1,548 + 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(3.8310)
= $46.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,067)
= Exp(a + b × X1,067 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,548 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5481 + 0.0014 × 1,548 – 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(3.7163)
= $41.11
February 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5481 + 0.0014 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(4.2278)
= $68.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5481 + 0.0014 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(4.1131)
= $61.14
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 69.00% per annum.
- CSCO price at the close of February 28, 2025 was $64.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 16, 2024
End date: February 28, 2025
a = 2.3141
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0180
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0180) – 1
= 7.47%
October 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3141 + 0.0010 × 1,689 + 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(4.0493)
= $57.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3141 + 0.0010 × 1,689 – 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(3.9773)
= $53.37
February 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3141 + 0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(4.1851)
= $65.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3141 + 0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(4.1131)
= $61.13
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.37% per annum.
- CSCO price at the close of February 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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