Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.45% per annum.
- CSCO price at the close of June 30, 2026 was $117.46 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $19.24 (19.59%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 641.96% per annum.
- CSCO price at the close of June 30, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.75 (1.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CSCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 3, 2024
End date: May 8, 2026
a = 2.8669
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0469
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0469) – 1
= 20.61%
April 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y692)
= Exp(a + b × X692 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,007 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8669 + 0.0009 × 1,007 + 2 × 0.0469)
= Exp(3.8581)
= $47.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y692)
= Exp(a + b × X692 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,007 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8669 + 0.0009 × 1,007 – 2 × 0.0469)
= Exp(3.6707)
= $39.28
May 8, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8669 + 0.0009 × 1,772 + 2 × 0.0469)
= Exp(4.5400)
= $93.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8669 + 0.0009 × 1,772 – 2 × 0.0469)
= Exp(4.3526)
= $77.68
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.45% per annum.
- CSCO price at the close of June 30, 2026 was $117.46 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $19.24 (19.59%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 6, 2026
End date: June 24, 2026
a = -5.1198
b = 0.0055
s = 0.0600
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0055) – 1
= 641.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0600) – 1
= 27.10%
March 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.1198 + 0.0055 × 1,709 + 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(4.3838)
= $80.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.1198 + 0.0055 × 1,709 – 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(4.1440)
= $63.05
June 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.1198 + 0.0055 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(4.9878)
= $146.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.1198 + 0.0055 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(4.7480)
= $115.35
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 641.96% per annum.
- CSCO price at the close of June 30, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.75 (1.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.