Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 77.56% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of February 20, 2025 was $59.27 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $21.61 (57.39%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,186,494,135.42% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of February 20, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SMCI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 14, 2024
End date: February 7, 2025
a = 10.7187
b = -0.0041
s = 0.1922
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0041) – 1
= -77.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1922) – 1
= 115.75%
February 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,002)
= Exp(a + b × X1,002 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,454 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7187 + -0.0041 × 1,454 + 2 × 0.1922)
= Exp(5.1513)
= $172.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,002)
= Exp(a + b × X1,002 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,454 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7187 + -0.0041 × 1,454 – 2 × 0.1922)
= Exp(4.3823)
= $80.02
February 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7187 + -0.0041 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.1922)
= Exp(3.6818)
= $39.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7187 + -0.0041 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.1922)
= Exp(2.9128)
= $18.41
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 77.56% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of February 20, 2025 was $59.27 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $21.61 (57.39%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2025
End date: February 20, 2025
a = -77.3828
b = 0.0446
s = 0.0531
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0446) – 1
= 1,186,494,135.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0531) – 1
= 23.65%
February 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-77.3828 + 0.0446 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.0531)
= Exp(3.4548)
= $31.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-77.3828 + 0.0446 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.0531)
= Exp(3.2425)
= $25.60
February 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-77.3828 + 0.0446 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0531)
= Exp(4.2135)
= $67.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-77.3828 + 0.0446 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0531)
= Exp(4.0012)
= $54.66
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,186,494,135.42% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of February 20, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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