Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 77.74% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $28.27 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.59 (5.31%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 94.65% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SMCI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 4, 2024
End date: October 30, 2024
a = 11.1841
b = -0.0041
s = 0.1359
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0041) – 1
= -77.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1359) – 1
= 72.21%
March 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,566 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1841 + -0.0041 × 1,566 + 2 × 0.1359)
= Exp(5.0101)
= $149.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,566 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1841 + -0.0041 × 1,566 – 2 × 0.1359)
= Exp(4.4666)
= $87.06
October 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1841 + -0.0041 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.1359)
= Exp(4.0222)
= $55.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1841 + -0.0041 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.1359)
= Exp(3.4787)
= $32.42
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 77.74% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $28.27 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.59 (5.31%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 17.9616
b = -0.0080
s = 0.1702
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0080) – 1
= -94.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1702) – 1
= 97.53%
June 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.9616 + -0.0080 × 1,667 + 2 × 0.1702)
= Exp(4.9320)
= $138.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.9616 + -0.0080 × 1,667 – 2 × 0.1702)
= Exp(4.2513)
= $70.20
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.9616 + -0.0080 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1702)
= Exp(3.6568)
= $38.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.9616 + -0.0080 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1702)
= Exp(2.9761)
= $19.61
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 94.65% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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