Stock Analysis on Net

Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE:DELL)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 125.08% per annum.
  • DELL price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $95.33 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $83.37 (46.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.00% per annum.
  • DELL price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DELL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 26, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024

a = 1.3854

b = 0.0022

s = 0.1281

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 125.08%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1281) – 1
= 66.91%

August 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y604)
= Exp(a + b × X604 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 875 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3854 + 0.0022 × 875 + 2 × 0.1281)
= Exp(3.5864)
= $36.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y604)
= Exp(a + b × X604 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 875 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3854 + 0.0022 × 875 – 2 × 0.1281)
= Exp(3.0741)
= $21.63

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3854 + 0.0022 × 1,575 + 2 × 0.1281)
= Exp(5.1423)
= $171.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3854 + 0.0022 × 1,575 – 2 × 0.1281)
= Exp(4.6300)
= $102.51

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 125.08% per annum.
  • DELL price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $95.33 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $83.37 (46.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 1, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 5.8358

b = -0.0006

s = 0.1079

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -21.00%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1079) – 1
= 53.97%

April 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,003)
= Exp(a + b × X1,003 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,459 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8358 + -0.0006 × 1,459 + 2 × 0.1079)
= Exp(5.1092)
= $165.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,003)
= Exp(a + b × X1,003 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,459 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8358 + -0.0006 × 1,459 – 2 × 0.1079)
= Exp(4.6776)
= $107.51

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8358 + -0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1079)
= Exp(4.8728)
= $130.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8358 + -0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1079)
= Exp(4.4412)
= $84.88

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.00% per annum.
  • DELL price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
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