Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.74% per annum.
- F price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $9.72 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.63% per annum.
- F price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of F price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 7, 2021
End date: March 28, 2025
a = 2.7734
b = -0.0003
s = 0.1250
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1250) – 1
= 64.90%
October 7, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y385)
= Exp(a + b × X385 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 556 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7734 + -0.0003 × 556 + 2 × 0.1250)
= Exp(2.8674)
= $17.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y385)
= Exp(a + b × X385 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 556 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7734 + -0.0003 × 556 – 2 × 0.1250)
= Exp(2.3672)
= $10.67
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7734 + -0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1250)
= Exp(2.5114)
= $12.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7734 + -0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1250)
= Exp(2.0112)
= $7.47
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.74% per annum.
- F price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $9.72 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2022
End date: March 28, 2025
a = 2.5153
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0911
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0911) – 1
= 43.98%
May 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y531)
= Exp(a + b × X531 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 767 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5153 + -0.0001 × 767 + 2 × 0.0911)
= Exp(2.6198)
= $13.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y531)
= Exp(a + b × X531 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 767 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5153 + -0.0001 × 767 – 2 × 0.0911)
= Exp(2.2552)
= $9.54
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5153 + -0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0911)
= Exp(2.5126)
= $12.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5153 + -0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0911)
= Exp(2.1481)
= $8.57
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.63% per annum.
- F price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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