Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.74% per annum.
- F price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $10.06 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.96% per annum.
- F price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of F price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 7, 2021
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 2.7655
b = -0.0003
s = 0.1239
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1239) – 1
= 64.14%
October 7, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y366)
= Exp(a + b × X366 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 528 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7655 + -0.0003 × 528 + 2 × 0.1239)
= Exp(2.8650)
= $17.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y366)
= Exp(a + b × X366 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 528 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7655 + -0.0003 × 528 – 2 × 0.1239)
= Exp(2.3695)
= $10.69
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7655 + -0.0003 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1239)
= Exp(2.5016)
= $12.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7655 + -0.0003 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1239)
= Exp(2.0061)
= $7.43
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.74% per annum.
- F price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $10.06 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2022
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 2.5226
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0908
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0908) – 1
= 43.80%
May 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y512)
= Exp(a + b × X512 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 739 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5226 + -0.0001 × 739 + 2 × 0.0908)
= Exp(2.6224)
= $13.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y512)
= Exp(a + b × X512 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 739 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5226 + -0.0001 × 739 – 2 × 0.0908)
= Exp(2.2592)
= $9.58
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5226 + -0.0001 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0908)
= Exp(2.5025)
= $12.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5226 + -0.0001 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0908)
= Exp(2.1392)
= $8.49
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.96% per annum.
- F price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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