Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.58% per annum.
- HLT price at the close of August 7, 2024 was $203.52 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.95 (0.95%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.67% per annum.
- HLT price at the close of August 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HLT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2023
End date: July 31, 2024
a = 3.4697
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0458
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0458) – 1
= 20.08%
March 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y904)
= Exp(a + b × X904 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,313 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4697 + 0.0011 × 1,313 + 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(4.9613)
= $142.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y904)
= Exp(a + b × X904 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,313 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4697 + 0.0011 × 1,313 – 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(4.7783)
= $118.90
July 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4697 + 0.0011 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(5.5009)
= $244.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4697 + 0.0011 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(5.3179)
= $203.95
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.58% per annum.
- HLT price at the close of August 7, 2024 was $203.52 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.95 (0.95%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 15, 2024
End date: August 7, 2024
a = 4.7246
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0299
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 13.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0299) – 1
= 12.72%
February 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,652 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7246 + 0.0004 × 1,652 + 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(5.3643)
= $213.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,652 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7246 + 0.0004 × 1,652 – 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(5.2446)
= $189.54
August 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7246 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(5.4254)
= $227.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7246 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(5.3056)
= $201.47
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.67% per annum.
- HLT price at the close of August 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
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