Stock Analysis on Net

Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ:SBUX)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 62.69% per annum.
  • SBUX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $98.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.72 (1.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 80.92% per annum.
  • SBUX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SBUX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 1, 2024
End date: March 7, 2025

a = 2.3039

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0671

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 62.69%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0671) – 1
= 30.76%

May 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,027)
= Exp(a + b × X1,027 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,491 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3039 + 0.0013 × 1,491 + 2 × 0.0671)
= Exp(4.4261)
= $83.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,027)
= Exp(a + b × X1,027 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,491 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3039 + 0.0013 × 1,491 – 2 × 0.0671)
= Exp(4.1579)
= $63.94

March 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3039 + 0.0013 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0671)
= Exp(4.8395)
= $126.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3039 + 0.0013 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0671)
= Exp(4.5712)
= $96.66

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 62.69% per annum.
  • SBUX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $98.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.72 (1.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 12, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 12.8335

b = -0.0045

s = 0.0345

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0045) – 1
= -80.92%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0345) – 1
= 14.81%

February 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8335 + -0.0045 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(4.8324)
= $125.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8335 + -0.0045 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(4.6943)
= $109.32

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8335 + -0.0045 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(4.6191)
= $101.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8335 + -0.0045 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(4.4809)
= $88.32

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 80.92% per annum.
  • SBUX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Stock Price Trends
  • Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
  • Check the power of mathematical statistics.
  • Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.

Check out SBUX and 1,499 other stocks on our new website