Stock Analysis on Net

Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ:SBUX)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 62.69% per annum.
  • SBUX price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $97.73 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.68 (1.69%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 81.98% per annum.
  • SBUX price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SBUX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 1, 2024
End date: March 7, 2025

a = 2.3012

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0671

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 62.69%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0671) – 1
= 30.76%

May 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,029)
= Exp(a + b × X1,029 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,493 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3012 + 0.0013 × 1,493 + 2 × 0.0671)
= Exp(4.4261)
= $83.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,029)
= Exp(a + b × X1,029 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,493 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3012 + 0.0013 × 1,493 – 2 × 0.0671)
= Exp(4.1579)
= $63.94

March 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3012 + 0.0013 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0671)
= Exp(4.8395)
= $126.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3012 + 0.0013 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0671)
= Exp(4.5712)
= $96.66

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 62.69% per annum.
  • SBUX price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $97.73 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.68 (1.69%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 12, 2025
End date: March 28, 2025

a = 13.1225

b = -0.0047

s = 0.0344

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0047) – 1
= -81.98%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0344) – 1
= 14.75%

February 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,780 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.1225 + -0.0047 × 1,780 + 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(4.8346)
= $125.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,780 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.1225 + -0.0047 × 1,780 – 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(4.6970)
= $109.62

March 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.1225 + -0.0047 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(4.6280)
= $102.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.1225 + -0.0047 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(4.4904)
= $89.16

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 81.98% per annum.
  • SBUX price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
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