Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 62.69% per annum.
- SBUX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $98.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.72 (1.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 80.92% per annum.
- SBUX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SBUX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 1, 2024
End date: March 7, 2025
a = 2.3039
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0671
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 62.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0671) – 1
= 30.76%
May 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,027)
= Exp(a + b × X1,027 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,491 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3039 + 0.0013 × 1,491 + 2 × 0.0671)
= Exp(4.4261)
= $83.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,027)
= Exp(a + b × X1,027 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,491 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3039 + 0.0013 × 1,491 – 2 × 0.0671)
= Exp(4.1579)
= $63.94
March 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3039 + 0.0013 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0671)
= Exp(4.8395)
= $126.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3039 + 0.0013 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0671)
= Exp(4.5712)
= $96.66
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 62.69% per annum.
- SBUX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $98.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.72 (1.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 12, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 12.8335
b = -0.0045
s = 0.0345
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0045) – 1
= -80.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0345) – 1
= 14.81%
February 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8335 + -0.0045 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(4.8324)
= $125.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8335 + -0.0045 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(4.6943)
= $109.32
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8335 + -0.0045 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(4.6191)
= $101.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8335 + -0.0045 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(4.4809)
= $88.32
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 80.92% per annum.
- SBUX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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