Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.81% per annum.
- BKNG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $4,976.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 255.81% per annum.
- BKNG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BKNG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 16, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 6.4734
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0716
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0716) – 1
= 33.15%
June 16, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y647)
= Exp(a + b × X647 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 939 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4734 + 0.0011 × 939 + 2 × 0.0716)
= Exp(7.6218)
= $2,042.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y647)
= Exp(a + b × X647 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 939 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4734 + 0.0011 × 939 – 2 × 0.0716)
= Exp(7.3355)
= $1,533.84
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4734 + 0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0716)
= Exp(8.5714)
= $5,278.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4734 + 0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0716)
= Exp(8.2851)
= $3,964.54
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.81% per annum.
- BKNG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $4,976.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.1613
b = 0.0035
s = 0.0267
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0035) – 1
= 255.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0267) – 1
= 11.28%
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1613 + 0.0035 × 1,717 + 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(8.1854)
= $3,588.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1613 + 0.0035 × 1,717 – 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(8.0785)
= $3,224.29
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1613 + 0.0035 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(8.5644)
= $5,241.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1613 + 0.0035 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(8.4575)
= $4,710.26
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 255.81% per annum.
- BKNG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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