Stock Analysis on Net

Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.40% per annum.
  • BKNG price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $4,634.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.95% per annum.
  • BKNG price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BKNG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 14, 2022
End date: March 6, 2025

a = 6.5988

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0711

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 48.40%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0711) – 1
= 32.92%

June 14, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y557)
= Exp(a + b × X557 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5988 + 0.0011 × 806 + 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(7.6127)
= $2,023.78

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y557)
= Exp(a + b × X557 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5988 + 0.0011 × 806 – 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(7.3282)
= $1,522.60

March 6, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5988 + 0.0011 × 1,802 + 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(8.6898)
= $5,942.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5988 + 0.0011 × 1,802 – 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(8.4053)
= $4,470.66

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.40% per annum.
  • BKNG price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $4,634.24 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: March 28, 2025

a = 9.7489

b = -0.0007

s = 0.0351

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.95%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0351) – 1
= 15.07%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7489 + -0.0007 × 1,682 + 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(8.6175)
= $5,527.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7489 + -0.0007 × 1,682 – 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(8.4771)
= $4,803.73

March 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7489 + -0.0007 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(8.5161)
= $4,994.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7489 + -0.0007 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(8.3757)
= $4,340.36

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.95% per annum.
  • BKNG price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
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