Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.41% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of November 11, 2026 was $36.64 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.27 (0.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.27% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of November 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 25, 2024
End date: November 3, 2026
a = 4.9311
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0979
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0979) – 1
= 47.91%
March 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y592)
= Exp(a + b × X592 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 864 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9311 + -0.0008 × 864 + 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(4.4010)
= $81.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y592)
= Exp(a + b × X592 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 864 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9311 + -0.0008 × 864 – 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(4.0096)
= $55.12
November 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9311 + -0.0008 × 1,817 + 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(3.6004)
= $36.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9311 + -0.0008 × 1,817 – 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(3.2090)
= $24.75
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.41% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of November 11, 2026 was $36.64 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.27 (0.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 30, 2025
End date: November 11, 2026
a = 3.9163
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0824
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0824) – 1
= 39.05%
October 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y994)
= Exp(a + b × X994 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,448 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9163 + -0.0002 × 1,448 + 2 × 0.0824)
= Exp(3.7387)
= $42.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y994)
= Exp(a + b × X994 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,448 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9163 + -0.0002 × 1,448 – 2 × 0.0824)
= Exp(3.4091)
= $30.24
November 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9163 + -0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0824)
= Exp(3.6495)
= $38.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9163 + -0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0824)
= Exp(3.3199)
= $27.66
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.27% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of November 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.