Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 59.56% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $49.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 71.20% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 4, 2024
End date: March 28, 2025
a = 8.4179
b = -0.0025
s = 0.0278
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -59.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0278) – 1
= 11.78%
December 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4179 + -0.0025 × 1,710 + 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(4.2324)
= $68.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4179 + -0.0025 × 1,710 – 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(4.1210)
= $61.62
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4179 + -0.0025 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(3.9496)
= $51.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4179 + -0.0025 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(3.8383)
= $46.44
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 59.56% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $49.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 27, 2025
End date: March 28, 2025
a = 10.0946
b = -0.0034
s = 0.0250
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0034) – 1
= -71.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0250) – 1
= 10.51%
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0946 + -0.0034 × 1,764 + 2 × 0.0250)
= Exp(4.1286)
= $62.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0946 + -0.0034 × 1,764 – 2 × 0.0250)
= Exp(4.0287)
= $56.19
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0946 + -0.0034 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0250)
= Exp(3.9240)
= $50.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0946 + -0.0034 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0250)
= Exp(3.8240)
= $45.79
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 71.20% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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