Stock Analysis on Net

Airbnb Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.57% per annum.
  • ABNB price at the close of April 7, 2025 was $106.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $41.82 (28.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.52% per annum.
  • ABNB price at the close of April 7, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.14 (0.13%).
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ABNB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 9, 2022
End date: July 31, 2024

a = 4.3126

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0975

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.57%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0975) – 1
= 47.67%

May 9, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y354)
= Exp(a + b × X354 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 515 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3126 + 0.0006 × 515 + 2 × 0.0975)
= Exp(4.7946)
= $120.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y354)
= Exp(a + b × X354 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 515 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3126 + 0.0006 × 515 – 2 × 0.0975)
= Exp(4.4048)
= $81.84

July 31, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,329 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3126 + 0.0006 × 1,329 + 2 × 0.0975)
= Exp(5.2484)
= $190.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,329 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3126 + 0.0006 × 1,329 – 2 × 0.0975)
= Exp(4.8586)
= $128.85

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.57% per annum.
  • ABNB price at the close of April 7, 2025 was $106.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $41.82 (28.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 22, 2024
End date: April 7, 2025

a = 5.6091

b = -0.0005

s = 0.0801

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.52%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0801) – 1
= 37.77%

January 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,138 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6091 + -0.0005 × 1,138 + 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(5.2062)
= $182.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,138 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6091 + -0.0005 × 1,138 – 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(4.8858)
= $132.40

April 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,579 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6091 + -0.0005 × 1,579 + 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(4.9880)
= $146.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,579 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6091 + -0.0005 × 1,579 – 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(4.6676)
= $106.44

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.52% per annum.
  • ABNB price at the close of April 7, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.14 (0.13%).
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