Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.57% per annum.
- ABNB price at the close of April 7, 2025 was $106.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $41.82 (28.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.52% per annum.
- ABNB price at the close of April 7, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.14 (0.13%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ABNB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 9, 2022
End date: July 31, 2024
a = 4.3126
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0975
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0975) – 1
= 47.67%
May 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y354)
= Exp(a + b × X354 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 515 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3126 + 0.0006 × 515 + 2 × 0.0975)
= Exp(4.7946)
= $120.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y354)
= Exp(a + b × X354 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 515 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3126 + 0.0006 × 515 – 2 × 0.0975)
= Exp(4.4048)
= $81.84
July 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,329 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3126 + 0.0006 × 1,329 + 2 × 0.0975)
= Exp(5.2484)
= $190.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,329 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3126 + 0.0006 × 1,329 – 2 × 0.0975)
= Exp(4.8586)
= $128.85
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.57% per annum.
- ABNB price at the close of April 7, 2025 was $106.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $41.82 (28.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 22, 2024
End date: April 7, 2025
a = 5.6091
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0801
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0801) – 1
= 37.77%
January 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,138 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6091 + -0.0005 × 1,138 + 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(5.2062)
= $182.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,138 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6091 + -0.0005 × 1,138 – 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(4.8858)
= $132.40
April 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,579 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6091 + -0.0005 × 1,579 + 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(4.9880)
= $146.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,579 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6091 + -0.0005 × 1,579 – 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(4.6676)
= $106.44
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.52% per annum.
- ABNB price at the close of April 7, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.14 (0.13%).
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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