Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 296.59% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of February 5, 2026 was $323.48 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 268.94% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of February 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 20, 2026
End date: February 5, 2026
a = -1.1024
b = 0.0038
s = 0.0041
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0038) – 1
= 296.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0041) – 1
= 1.65%
January 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1024 + 0.0038 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0041)
= Exp(5.7265)
= $306.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1024 + 0.0038 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0041)
= Exp(5.7102)
= $301.92
February 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1024 + 0.0038 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0041)
= Exp(5.7869)
= $326.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1024 + 0.0038 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0041)
= Exp(5.7706)
= $320.71
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 296.59% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of February 5, 2026 was $323.48 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 22, 2026
End date: February 5, 2026
a = -0.7423
b = 0.0036
s = 0.0040
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0036) – 1
= 268.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0040) – 1
= 1.63%
January 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7423 + 0.0036 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.0040)
= Exp(5.7359)
= $309.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7423 + 0.0036 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.0040)
= Exp(5.7197)
= $304.81
February 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7423 + 0.0036 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0040)
= Exp(5.7859)
= $325.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7423 + 0.0036 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0040)
= Exp(5.7698)
= $320.47
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 268.94% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of February 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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