Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.22% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $277.78 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.36% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HUM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 24, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 7.2411
b = -0.0008
s = 0.1028
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1028) – 1
= 50.88%
October 24, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y736)
= Exp(a + b × X736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,069 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2411 + -0.0008 × 1,069 + 2 × 0.1028)
= Exp(6.5561)
= $703.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y736)
= Exp(a + b × X736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,069 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2411 + -0.0008 × 1,069 – 2 × 0.1028)
= Exp(6.1447)
= $466.26
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2411 + -0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1028)
= Exp(5.9253)
= $374.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2411 + -0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1028)
= Exp(5.5140)
= $248.15
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.22% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $277.78 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 8, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 11.9525
b = -0.0035
s = 0.0742
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0035) – 1
= -72.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0742) – 1
= 34.55%
July 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,692 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9525 + -0.0035 × 1,692 + 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(6.1398)
= $463.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,692 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9525 + -0.0035 × 1,692 – 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(5.8430)
= $344.81
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9525 + -0.0035 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(5.6677)
= $289.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9525 + -0.0035 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(5.3709)
= $215.05
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.36% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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