Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.49% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of October 30, 2024 was $265.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 80.50% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of October 30, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HUM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 21, 2022
End date: October 30, 2024
a = 7.2177
b = -0.0008
s = 0.1022
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1022) – 1
= 50.52%
October 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y749)
= Exp(a + b × X749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,086 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2177 + -0.0008 × 1,086 + 2 × 0.1022)
= Exp(6.5466)
= $696.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y749)
= Exp(a + b × X749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,086 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2177 + -0.0008 × 1,086 – 2 × 0.1022)
= Exp(6.1377)
= $462.99
October 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2177 + -0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1022)
= Exp(5.9500)
= $383.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2177 + -0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1022)
= Exp(5.5411)
= $254.95
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.49% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of October 30, 2024 was $265.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 12, 2024
End date: October 30, 2024
a = 13.7035
b = -0.0045
s = 0.0647
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0045) – 1
= -80.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0647) – 1
= 29.53%
July 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.7035 + -0.0045 × 1,716 + 2 × 0.0647)
= Exp(6.1475)
= $467.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.7035 + -0.0045 × 1,716 – 2 × 0.0647)
= Exp(5.8887)
= $360.95
October 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.7035 + -0.0045 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0647)
= Exp(5.6549)
= $285.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.7035 + -0.0045 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0647)
= Exp(5.3961)
= $220.54
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 80.50% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of October 30, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
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