In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Dividends are the cleanest and most straightforward measure of cash flow because these are clearly cash flows that go directly to the investor.
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Johnson Controls International plc pages available for free this week:
- Income Statement
- Statement of Comprehensive Income
- Balance Sheet: Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity
- Common-Size Income Statement
- Analysis of Solvency Ratios
- Analysis of Reportable Segments
- Common Stock Valuation Ratios
- Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA)
- Return on Equity (ROE) since 2005
- Aggregate Accruals
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Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)
Year | Value | DPSt or Terminal value (TVt) | Calculation | Present value at |
---|---|---|---|---|
0 | DPS01 | |||
1 | DPS1 | = × (1 + ) | ||
2 | DPS2 | = × (1 + ) | ||
3 | DPS3 | = × (1 + ) | ||
4 | DPS4 | = × (1 + ) | ||
5 | DPS5 | = × (1 + ) | ||
5 | Terminal value (TV5) | = × (1 + ) ÷ ( – ) | ||
Intrinsic value of Johnson Controls International plc common stock (per share) | ||||
Current share price |
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-09-30).
1 DPS0 = Sum of the last year dividends per share of Johnson Controls International plc common stock. See details »
Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.
Required Rate of Return (r)
Assumptions | ||
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 | RF | |
Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 | E(RM) | |
Systematic risk of Johnson Controls International plc common stock | βJCI | |
Required rate of return on Johnson Controls International plc common stock3 | rJCI |
1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).
3 rJCI = RF + βJCI [E(RM) – RF]
= + [ – ]
=
Dividend Growth Rate (g)
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-09-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-09-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-09-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-09-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-09-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-09-30).
2023 Calculations
1 Retention rate = (Net income attributable to Johnson Controls – Cash dividends declared) ÷ Net income attributable to Johnson Controls
= ( – ) ÷
=
2 Profit margin = 100 × Net income attributable to Johnson Controls ÷ Net sales
= 100 × ÷
=
3 Asset turnover = Net sales ÷ Total assets
= ÷
=
4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Shareholders’ equity attributable to Johnson Controls
= ÷
=
5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= × × ×
=
Dividend growth rate (g) implied by Gordon growth model
g = 100 × (P0 × r – D0) ÷ (P0 + D0)
= 100 × ( × – ) ÷ ( + )
=
where:
P0 = current price of share of Johnson Controls International plc common stock
D0 = the last year dividends per share of Johnson Controls International plc common stock
r = required rate of return on Johnson Controls International plc common stock
Year | Value | gt |
---|---|---|
1 | g1 | |
2 | g2 | |
3 | g3 | |
4 | g4 | |
5 and thereafter | g5 |
where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by Gordon growth model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5
Calculations
g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=
g3 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=
g4 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=