Stock Analysis on Net

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (NYSE:ELF)

This company has been moved to the archive! The financial data has not been updated since August 9, 2024.

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 234.33% per annum.
  • ELF price at the close of August 9, 2024 was $160.83 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $170.93 (51.52%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 95.84% per annum.
  • ELF price at the close of August 9, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.49 (2.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ELF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 7, 2022
End date: September 18, 2023

a = -0.0263

b = 0.0033

s = 0.1004

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0033) – 1
= 234.33%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1004) – 1
= 49.42%

February 7, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y628)
= Exp(a + b × X628 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 910 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0263 + 0.0033 × 910 + 2 × 0.1004)
= Exp(3.1836)
= $24.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y628)
= Exp(a + b × X628 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 910 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0263 + 0.0033 × 910 – 2 × 0.1004)
= Exp(2.7821)
= $16.15

September 18, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,032)
= Exp(a + b × X1,032 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,498 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0263 + 0.0033 × 1,498 + 2 × 0.1004)
= Exp(5.1280)
= $168.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,032)
= Exp(a + b × X1,032 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,498 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0263 + 0.0033 × 1,498 – 2 × 0.1004)
= Exp(4.7264)
= $112.89

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 234.33% per annum.
  • ELF price at the close of August 9, 2024 was $160.83 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $170.93 (51.52%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 2, 2023
End date: August 9, 2024

a = 2.0006

b = 0.0018

s = 0.1258

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 95.84%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1258) – 1
= 65.40%

February 2, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y876)
= Exp(a + b × X876 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,270 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0006 + 0.0018 × 1,270 + 2 × 0.1258)
= Exp(4.5909)
= $98.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y876)
= Exp(a + b × X876 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,270 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0006 + 0.0018 × 1,270 – 2 × 0.1258)
= Exp(4.0877)
= $59.60

August 9, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0006 + 0.0018 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1258)
= Exp(5.6111)
= $273.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0006 + 0.0018 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1258)
= Exp(5.1079)
= $165.32

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 95.84% per annum.
  • ELF price at the close of August 9, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.49 (2.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Stock Price Trends

Check current ELF price trends.

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