Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 180.08% per annum.
- ELF price at the close of September 18, 2024 was $114.65 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $132.61 (53.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 91.30% per annum.
- ELF price at the close of September 18, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ELF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 18, 2022
End date: April 2, 2024
a = 0.6410
b = 0.0028
s = 0.1415
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 180.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1415) – 1
= 76.12%
January 18, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y587)
= Exp(a + b × X587 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 852 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6410 + 0.0028 × 852 + 2 × 0.1415)
= Exp(3.3281)
= $27.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y587)
= Exp(a + b × X587 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 852 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6410 + 0.0028 × 852 – 2 × 0.1415)
= Exp(2.7621)
= $15.83
April 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6410 + 0.0028 × 1,657 + 2 × 0.1415)
= Exp(5.5996)
= $270.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6410 + 0.0028 × 1,657 – 2 × 0.1415)
= Exp(5.0336)
= $153.48
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 180.08% per annum.
- ELF price at the close of September 18, 2024 was $114.65 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $132.61 (53.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 18, 2024
End date: September 18, 2024
a = 17.0237
b = -0.0067
s = 0.0747
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0067) – 1
= -91.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0747) – 1
= 34.83%
June 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.0237 + -0.0067 × 1,734 + 2 × 0.0747)
= Exp(5.5732)
= $263.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.0237 + -0.0067 × 1,734 – 2 × 0.0747)
= Exp(5.2744)
= $195.27
September 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.0237 + -0.0067 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0747)
= Exp(4.9578)
= $142.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.0237 + -0.0067 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0747)
= Exp(4.6590)
= $105.53
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 91.30% per annum.
- ELF price at the close of September 18, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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