Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 234.33% per annum.
- ELF price at the close of August 9, 2024 was $160.83 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $170.93 (51.52%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 95.84% per annum.
- ELF price at the close of August 9, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.49 (2.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ELF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 7, 2022
End date: September 18, 2023
a = -0.0263
b = 0.0033
s = 0.1004
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0033) – 1
= 234.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1004) – 1
= 49.42%
February 7, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y628)
= Exp(a + b × X628 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 910 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0263 + 0.0033 × 910 + 2 × 0.1004)
= Exp(3.1836)
= $24.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y628)
= Exp(a + b × X628 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 910 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0263 + 0.0033 × 910 – 2 × 0.1004)
= Exp(2.7821)
= $16.15
September 18, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,032)
= Exp(a + b × X1,032 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,498 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0263 + 0.0033 × 1,498 + 2 × 0.1004)
= Exp(5.1280)
= $168.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,032)
= Exp(a + b × X1,032 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,498 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0263 + 0.0033 × 1,498 – 2 × 0.1004)
= Exp(4.7264)
= $112.89
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 234.33% per annum.
- ELF price at the close of August 9, 2024 was $160.83 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $170.93 (51.52%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2023
End date: August 9, 2024
a = 2.0006
b = 0.0018
s = 0.1258
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 95.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1258) – 1
= 65.40%
February 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y876)
= Exp(a + b × X876 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,270 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0006 + 0.0018 × 1,270 + 2 × 0.1258)
= Exp(4.5909)
= $98.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y876)
= Exp(a + b × X876 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,270 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0006 + 0.0018 × 1,270 – 2 × 0.1258)
= Exp(4.0877)
= $59.60
August 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0006 + 0.0018 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1258)
= Exp(5.6111)
= $273.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0006 + 0.0018 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1258)
= Exp(5.1079)
= $165.32
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 95.84% per annum.
- ELF price at the close of August 9, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.49 (2.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Check current ELF price trends.
Visit our new 1,500-company website