Stock Analysis on Net
Stock Analysis on Net

Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG)

Present Value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)

Microsoft Excel

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) is generally described as cash flows after direct costs and before any payments to capital suppliers.

Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Alphabet Inc., free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) forecast

US$ in millions, except per share data

Microsoft Excel
Year Value FCFFt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at 14.46%
01 FCFF0 69,916
1 FCFF1 85,162 = 69,916 × (1 + 21.81%) 74,401
2 FCFF2 101,410 = 85,162 × (1 + 19.08%) 77,401
3 FCFF3 117,994 = 101,410 × (1 + 16.35%) 78,678
4 FCFF4 134,074 = 117,994 × (1 + 13.63%) 78,103
5 FCFF5 148,689 = 134,074 × (1 + 10.90%) 75,672
5 Terminal value (TV5) 4,628,193 = 148,689 × (1 + 10.90%) ÷ (14.46% – 10.90%) 2,355,428
Intrinsic value of Alphabet Inc. capital 2,739,683
Less: Debt (fair value) 12,046
Intrinsic value of Alphabet Inc. common stock 2,727,637
 
Intrinsic value of Alphabet Inc. common stock (per share) $222.83
Current share price $176.80

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 See details »

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Alphabet Inc., cost of capital

Microsoft Excel
Value1 Weight Required rate of return2 Calculation
Equity (fair value) 2,164,209 0.99 14.53%
Debt (fair value) 12,046 0.01 2.87% = 3.38% × (1 – 15.22%)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

   Equity (fair value) = No. shares of common stock outstanding × Current share price
= 12,241,000,000 × $176.80
= $2,164,208,800,000.00

   Debt (fair value). See details »

2 Required rate of return on equity is estimated by using CAPM. See details »

   Required rate of return on debt. See details »

   Required rate of return on debt is after tax.

   Estimated (average) effective income tax rate
= (13.90% + 15.90% + 16.20% + 16.20% + 13.90%) ÷ 5
= 15.22%

WACC = 14.46%

FCFF Growth Rate (g)

FCFF growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Alphabet Inc., PRAT model

Microsoft Excel
Average Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Interest expense 308 357 346 135 100
Net income 73,795 59,972 76,033 40,269 34,343
 
Effective income tax rate (EITR)1 13.90% 15.90% 16.20% 16.20% 13.90%
 
Interest expense, after tax2 265 300 290 113 86
Interest expense (after tax) and dividends 265 300 290 113 86
 
EBIT(1 – EITR)3 74,060 60,272 76,323 40,382 34,429
 
Current portion of long-term notes 1,000 — — 999 —
Current portion of future finance lease payments, net and other current debt 363 298 113 101 115
Long-term debt, excluding current portion 13,253 14,701 14,817 13,932 4,554
Stockholders’ equity 283,379 256,144 251,635 222,544 201,442
Total capital 297,995 271,143 266,565 237,576 206,111
Financial Ratios
Retention rate (RR)4 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Return on invested capital (ROIC)5 24.85% 22.23% 28.63% 17.00% 16.70%
Averages
RR 1.00
ROIC 21.88%
 
FCFF growth rate (g)6 21.81%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 See details »

2023 Calculations

2 Interest expense, after tax = Interest expense × (1 – EITR)
= 308 × (1 – 13.90%)
= 265

3 EBIT(1 – EITR) = Net income + Interest expense, after tax
= 73,795 + 265
= 74,060

4 RR = [EBIT(1 – EITR) – Interest expense (after tax) and dividends] ÷ EBIT(1 – EITR)
= [74,060 – 265] ÷ 74,060
= 1.00

5 ROIC = 100 × EBIT(1 – EITR) ÷ Total capital
= 100 × 74,060 ÷ 297,995
= 24.85%

6 g = RR × ROIC
= 1.00 × 21.88%
= 21.81%

FCFF growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Total capital, fair value0 × WACC – FCFF0) ÷ (Total capital, fair value0 + FCFF0)
= 100 × (2,176,255 × 14.46% – 69,916) ÷ (2,176,255 + 69,916)
= 10.90%

where:

Total capital, fair value0 = current fair value of Alphabet Inc. debt and equity (US$ in millions)
FCFF0 = the last year Alphabet Inc. free cash flow to the firm (US$ in millions)
WACC = weighted average cost of Alphabet Inc. capital

FCFF growth rate (g) forecast

Alphabet Inc., H-model

Microsoft Excel
Year Value gt
1 g1 21.81%
2 g2 19.08%
3 g3 16.35%
4 g4 13.63%
5 and thereafter g5 10.90%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 21.81% + (10.90% – 21.81%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 19.08%

g3 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 21.81% + (10.90% – 21.81%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 16.35%

g4 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 21.81% + (10.90% – 21.81%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 13.63%