Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.75% per annum.
- PARA price at the close of May 4, 2023 was $16.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 48.59% per annum.
- PARA price at the close of May 4, 2023 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.94 (15.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PARA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 25, 2021
End date: January 24, 2023
a = 5.6202
b = -0.0016
s = 0.1450
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1450) – 1
= 78.58%
January 25, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y684)
= Exp(a + b × X684 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 994 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6202 + -0.0016 × 994 + 2 × 0.1450)
= Exp(4.3432)
= $76.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y684)
= Exp(a + b × X684 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 994 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6202 + -0.0016 × 994 – 2 × 0.1450)
= Exp(3.7633)
= $43.09
January 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6202 + -0.0016 × 1,723 + 2 × 0.1450)
= Exp(3.1940)
= $24.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6202 + -0.0016 × 1,723 – 2 × 0.1450)
= Exp(2.6141)
= $13.65
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.75% per annum.
- PARA price at the close of May 4, 2023 was $16.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2022
End date: May 3, 2023
a = 1.1446
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0801
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 48.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0801) – 1
= 37.79%
September 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1446 + 0.0011 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(3.0442)
= $20.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1446 + 0.0011 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(2.7236)
= $15.24
May 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1446 + 0.0011 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(3.2818)
= $26.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1446 + 0.0011 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(2.9613)
= $19.32
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 48.59% per annum.
- PARA price at the close of May 4, 2023 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.94 (15.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Check current PARA price trends.
Visit our new 1,500-company website