Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.10% per annum.
- T price at the close of March 7, 2025 was $27.12 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.27 (0.99%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 373.70% per annum.
- T price at the close of March 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of T price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 14, 2023
End date: March 7, 2025
a = 1.1444
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0417
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 51.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0417) – 1
= 18.14%
July 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y843)
= Exp(a + b × X843 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1444 + 0.0011 × 1,222 + 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(2.6096)
= $13.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y843)
= Exp(a + b × X843 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1444 + 0.0011 × 1,222 – 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(2.4430)
= $11.51
March 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1444 + 0.0011 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(3.2904)
= $26.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1444 + 0.0011 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(3.1237)
= $22.73
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.10% per annum.
- T price at the close of March 7, 2025 was $27.12 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.27 (0.99%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 7, 2025
End date: March 7, 2025
a = -4.4523
b = 0.0043
s = 0.0195
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0043) – 1
= 373.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0195) – 1
= 8.10%
January 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,765 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.4523 + 0.0043 × 1,765 + 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(3.1080)
= $22.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,765 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.4523 + 0.0043 × 1,765 – 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(3.0301)
= $20.70
March 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.4523 + 0.0043 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(3.3595)
= $28.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.4523 + 0.0043 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(3.2815)
= $26.62
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 373.70% per annum.
- T price at the close of March 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out T and 1,499 other stocks on our new website