Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.38% per annum.
- T price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $24.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 68.65% per annum.
- T price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of T price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 14, 2023
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 1.1705
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0381
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 48.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0381) – 1
= 16.48%
July 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y871)
= Exp(a + b × X871 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,263 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1705 + 0.0011 × 1,263 + 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(2.6123)
= $13.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y871)
= Exp(a + b × X871 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,263 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1705 + 0.0011 × 1,263 – 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(2.4597)
= $11.70
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1705 + 0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(3.2209)
= $25.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1705 + 0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(3.0684)
= $21.51
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.38% per annum.
- T price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $24.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 8, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 0.5734
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0318
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 68.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0318) – 1
= 13.54%
April 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,055)
= Exp(a + b × X1,055 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,532 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5734 + 0.0014 × 1,532 + 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(2.8308)
= $16.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,055)
= Exp(a + b × X1,055 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,532 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5734 + 0.0014 × 1,532 – 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(2.7037)
= $14.94
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5734 + 0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(3.2518)
= $25.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5734 + 0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(3.1247)
= $22.75
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 68.65% per annum.
- T price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out T and 1,499 other stocks on our new website