Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.80% per annum.
- VZ price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $41.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 37.08% per annum.
- VZ price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VZ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 24, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.5191
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0504
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0504) – 1
= 22.32%
May 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y882)
= Exp(a + b × X882 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,281 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5191 + 0.0007 × 1,281 + 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(3.5081)
= $33.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y882)
= Exp(a + b × X882 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,281 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5191 + 0.0007 × 1,281 – 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(3.3066)
= $27.29
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5191 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(3.8861)
= $48.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5191 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(3.6846)
= $39.83
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.80% per annum.
- VZ price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $41.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 6.0289
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0172
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0172) – 1
= 7.12%
September 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0289 + -0.0013 × 1,759 + 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(3.8303)
= $46.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0289 + -0.0013 × 1,759 – 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(3.7615)
= $43.01
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0289 + -0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(3.7452)
= $42.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0289 + -0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(3.6764)
= $39.50
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 37.08% per annum.
- VZ price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out VZ and 1,499 other stocks on our new website