Stock Analysis on Net

Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.06% per annum.
  • VZ price at the close of November 1, 2024 was $41.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.72% per annum.
  • VZ price at the close of November 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VZ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 25, 2023
End date: November 1, 2024

a = 2.4682

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0496

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.06%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0496) – 1
= 21.92%

May 25, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y895)
= Exp(a + b × X895 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,298 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4682 + 0.0007 × 1,298 + 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(3.5020)
= $33.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y895)
= Exp(a + b × X895 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,298 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4682 + 0.0007 × 1,298 – 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(3.3038)
= $27.22

November 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4682 + 0.0007 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(3.8808)
= $48.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4682 + 0.0007 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(3.6826)
= $39.75

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.06% per annum.
  • VZ price at the close of November 1, 2024 was $41.36 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 2, 2024
End date: November 1, 2024

a = 2.9760

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0292

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 16.72%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0292) – 1
= 12.39%

January 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,046)
= Exp(a + b × X1,046 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,520 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9760 + 0.0004 × 1,520 + 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(3.6782)
= $39.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,046)
= Exp(a + b × X1,046 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,520 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9760 + 0.0004 × 1,520 – 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(3.5614)
= $35.21

November 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9760 + 0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(3.8070)
= $45.01

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9760 + 0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(3.6902)
= $40.05

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.72% per annum.
  • VZ price at the close of November 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
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