Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.03% per annum.
- GLW price at the close of May 2, 2024 was $33.32 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.57 (4.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 66.12% per annum.
- GLW price at the close of May 2, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.24 (0.70%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GLW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 24, 2021
End date: January 29, 2024
a = 3.8089
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0613
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0613) – 1
= 27.79%
February 24, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y456)
= Exp(a + b × X456 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 663 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8089 + -0.0003 × 663 + 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(3.7595)
= $42.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y456)
= Exp(a + b × X456 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 663 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8089 + -0.0003 × 663 – 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(3.5143)
= $33.59
January 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,732 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8089 + -0.0003 × 1,732 + 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(3.4821)
= $32.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,732 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8089 + -0.0003 × 1,732 – 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(3.2370)
= $25.46
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.03% per annum.
- GLW price at the close of May 2, 2024 was $33.32 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.57 (4.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 12, 2023
End date: April 1, 2024
a = 1.0153
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0207
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 66.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0207) – 1
= 8.61%
October 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,623 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0153 + 0.0014 × 1,623 + 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(3.3135)
= $27.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,623 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0153 + 0.0014 × 1,623 – 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(3.2309)
= $25.30
April 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0153 + 0.0014 × 1,795 + 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(3.5527)
= $34.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0153 + 0.0014 × 1,795 – 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(3.4701)
= $32.14
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 66.12% per annum.
- GLW price at the close of May 2, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.24 (0.70%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Check current GLW price trends.
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