Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.94% per annum.
- GNRC price at the close of August 8, 2022 was $252.06 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 306.11% per annum.
- GNRC price at the close of August 8, 2022 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GNRC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 6, 2021
End date: July 27, 2022
a = 9.2323
b = -0.0021
s = 0.1042
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1042) – 1
= 51.70%
July 6, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y982)
= Exp(a + b × X982 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2323 + -0.0021 × 1,427 + 2 × 0.1042)
= Exp(6.4103)
= $608.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y982)
= Exp(a + b × X982 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2323 + -0.0021 × 1,427 – 2 × 0.1042)
= Exp(5.9935)
= $400.83
July 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2323 + -0.0021 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.1042)
= Exp(5.5906)
= $267.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2323 + -0.0021 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.1042)
= Exp(5.1738)
= $176.59
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.94% per annum.
- GNRC price at the close of August 8, 2022 was $252.06 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 17, 2022
End date: August 8, 2022
a = -1.4668
b = 0.0038
s = 0.0452
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0038) – 1
= 306.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0452) – 1
= 19.84%
June 17, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,773 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4668 + 0.0038 × 1,773 + 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(5.4313)
= $228.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,773 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4668 + 0.0038 × 1,773 – 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(5.2503)
= $190.63
August 8, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4668 + 0.0038 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(5.6310)
= $278.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4668 + 0.0038 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(5.4500)
= $232.76
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 306.11% per annum.
- GNRC price at the close of August 8, 2022 was inside the secondary price channel.
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