Stock Analysis on Net

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL)

This company has been moved to the archive! The financial data has not been updated since July 29, 2022.

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 96.76% per annum.
  • RCL price at the close of July 29, 2022 was $38.71 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.38 (6.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.29% per annum.
  • RCL price at the close of July 29, 2022 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RCL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 29, 2022
End date: July 27, 2022

a = 20.5334

b = -0.0094

s = 0.0980

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0094) – 1
= -96.76%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0980) – 1
= 48.01%

March 29, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,702 + 2 × s)
= Exp(20.5334 + -0.0094 × 1,702 + 2 × 0.0980)
= Exp(4.7388)
= $114.30

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,702 – 2 × s)
= Exp(20.5334 + -0.0094 × 1,702 – 2 × 0.0980)
= Exp(4.3467)
= $77.23

July 27, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(20.5334 + -0.0094 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0980)
= Exp(3.6114)
= $37.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(20.5334 + -0.0094 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0980)
= Exp(3.2193)
= $25.01

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 96.76% per annum.
  • RCL price at the close of July 29, 2022 was $38.71 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.38 (6.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 14, 2022
End date: July 29, 2022

a = 7.2349

b = -0.0020

s = 0.0663

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -52.29%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0663) – 1
= 30.39%

June 14, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2349 + -0.0020 × 1,779 + 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(3.7607)
= $42.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2349 + -0.0020 × 1,779 – 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(3.4953)
= $32.96

July 29, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2349 + -0.0020 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(3.6695)
= $39.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2349 + -0.0020 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(3.4041)
= $30.09

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.29% per annum.
  • RCL price at the close of July 29, 2022 was inside the secondary price channel.
Stock Price Trends

Check current RCL price trends.

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