Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Paying user area
Try for free
Time Warner Inc. pages available for free this week:
- Income Statement
- Statement of Comprehensive Income
- Common-Size Balance Sheet: Assets
- Analysis of Long-term (Investment) Activity Ratios
- Enterprise Value (EV)
- Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
- Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
- Return on Equity (ROE) since 2005
- Price to Earnings (P/E) since 2005
- Price to Sales (P/S) since 2005
The data is hidden behind: . Unhide it.
Get full access to the entire website from $10.42/mo, or
get 1-month access to Time Warner Inc. for $22.49.
This is a one-time payment. There is no automatic renewal.
We accept:
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.95% per annum.
- TWX price at the close of April 26, 2018 was $93.67 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.00% per annum.
- TWX price at the close of April 26, 2018 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.02 (1.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TWX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date:
End date:
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=
February 23, 2017 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
April 26, 2018 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.95% per annum.
- TWX price at the close of April 26, 2018 was $93.67 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date:
End date:
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=
November 8, 2017 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
April 26, 2018 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.00% per annum.
- TWX price at the close of April 26, 2018 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.02 (1.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels has never been so accurate.
Visit our new 1,500-company website