Stock Analysis on Net

Time Warner Inc. (NYSE:TWX)

This company has been moved to the archive! The financial data has not been updated since April 26, 2018.

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.95% per annum.
  • TWX price at the close of April 26, 2018 was $93.67 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.00% per annum.
  • TWX price at the close of April 26, 2018 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.02 (1.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TWX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 23, 2017
End date: April 26, 2018

a = 4.8475

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0352

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.95%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0352) – 1
= 15.13%

February 23, 2017 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,396 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8475 + -0.0002 × 1,396 + 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(4.6832)
= $108.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,396 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8475 + -0.0002 × 1,396 – 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(4.5422)
= $93.90

April 26, 2018 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8475 + -0.0002 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(4.6113)
= $100.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8475 + -0.0002 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(4.4704)
= $87.39

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.95% per annum.
  • TWX price at the close of April 26, 2018 was $93.67 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 8, 2017
End date: April 26, 2018

a = 3.6661

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0131

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.00%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0131) – 1
= 5.39%

November 8, 2017 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6661 + 0.0005 × 1,654 + 2 × 0.0131)
= Exp(4.5186)
= $91.71

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6661 + 0.0005 × 1,654 – 2 × 0.0131)
= Exp(4.4661)
= $87.02

April 26, 2018 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6661 + 0.0005 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0131)
= Exp(4.6031)
= $99.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6661 + 0.0005 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0131)
= Exp(4.5506)
= $94.69

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.00% per annum.
  • TWX price at the close of April 26, 2018 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.02 (1.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
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