Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.77% per annum.
- CYTK price at the close of November 3, 2023 was $36.32 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.95 (2.70%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.36% per annum.
- CYTK price at the close of November 3, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CYTK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 4, 2022
End date: October 30, 2023
a = 5.4047
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0727
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0727) – 1
= 33.73%
August 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y942)
= Exp(a + b × X942 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,368 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4047 + -0.0011 × 1,368 + 2 × 0.0727)
= Exp(4.0618)
= $58.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y942)
= Exp(a + b × X942 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,368 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4047 + -0.0011 × 1,368 – 2 × 0.0727)
= Exp(3.7712)
= $43.43
October 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4047 + -0.0011 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0727)
= Exp(3.5701)
= $35.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4047 + -0.0011 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0727)
= Exp(3.2795)
= $26.56
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.77% per annum.
- CYTK price at the close of November 3, 2023 was $36.32 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.95 (2.70%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 26, 2022
End date: November 3, 2023
a = 4.9866
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0704
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0704) – 1
= 32.51%
October 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,000)
= Exp(a + b × X1,000 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,451 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9866 + -0.0008 × 1,451 + 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(3.9111)
= $49.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,000)
= Exp(a + b × X1,000 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,451 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9866 + -0.0008 × 1,451 – 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(3.6296)
= $37.70
November 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9866 + -0.0008 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(3.5984)
= $36.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9866 + -0.0008 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(3.3169)
= $27.58
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.36% per annum.
- CYTK price at the close of November 3, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
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