Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 91.84% per annum.
- DHR price at the close of September 23, 2026 was $221.56 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,186.19% per annum.
- DHR price at the close of September 23, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DHR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 1, 2026
End date: September 23, 2026
a = 4.5230
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0335
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 91.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0335) – 1
= 14.32%
May 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y234)
= Exp(a + b × X234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 339 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5230 + 0.0018 × 339 + 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(5.1950)
= $180.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y234)
= Exp(a + b × X234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 339 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5230 + 0.0018 × 339 – 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(5.0612)
= $157.78
September 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y333)
= Exp(a + b × X333 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 484 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5230 + 0.0018 × 484 + 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(5.4538)
= $233.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y333)
= Exp(a + b × X333 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 484 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5230 + 0.0018 × 484 – 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(5.3200)
= $204.39
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 91.84% per annum.
- DHR price at the close of September 23, 2026 was $221.56 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 9, 2026
End date: September 23, 2026
a = 2.0082
b = 0.0070
s = 0.0125
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0070) – 1
= 1,186.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0125) – 1
= 5.13%
September 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y323)
= Exp(a + b × X323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 470 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0082 + 0.0070 × 470 + 2 × 0.0125)
= Exp(5.3223)
= $204.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y323)
= Exp(a + b × X323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 470 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0082 + 0.0070 × 470 – 2 × 0.0125)
= Exp(5.2722)
= $194.84
September 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y333)
= Exp(a + b × X333 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 484 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0082 + 0.0070 × 484 + 2 × 0.0125)
= Exp(5.4202)
= $225.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y333)
= Exp(a + b × X333 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 484 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0082 + 0.0070 × 484 – 2 × 0.0125)
= Exp(5.3702)
= $214.90
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,186.19% per annum.
- DHR price at the close of September 23, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.