Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 205.93% per annum.
- TMO price at the close of September 25, 2026 was $675.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,329.07% per annum.
- TMO price at the close of September 25, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TMO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 11, 2026
End date: September 25, 2026
a = 5.2685
b = 0.0031
s = 0.0294
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0031) – 1
= 205.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0294) – 1
= 12.48%
May 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y183)
= Exp(a + b × X183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 266 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2685 + 0.0031 × 266 + 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(6.1422)
= $465.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y183)
= Exp(a + b × X183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 266 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2685 + 0.0031 × 266 – 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(6.0246)
= $413.48
September 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2685 + 0.0031 × 403 + 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(6.5620)
= $707.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2685 + 0.0031 × 403 – 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(6.4443)
= $629.11
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 205.93% per annum.
- TMO price at the close of September 25, 2026 was $675.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 8, 2026
End date: September 25, 2026
a = 3.5859
b = 0.0073
s = 0.0137
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0073) – 1
= 1,329.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0137) – 1
= 5.63%
September 8, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y265)
= Exp(a + b × X265 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 386 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5859 + 0.0073 × 386 + 2 × 0.0137)
= Exp(6.4259)
= $617.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y265)
= Exp(a + b × X265 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 386 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5859 + 0.0073 × 386 – 2 × 0.0137)
= Exp(6.3712)
= $584.75
September 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5859 + 0.0073 × 403 + 2 × 0.0137)
= Exp(6.5498)
= $699.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5859 + 0.0073 × 403 – 2 × 0.0137)
= Exp(6.4951)
= $661.86
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,329.07% per annum.
- TMO price at the close of September 25, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.