Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
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- Statement of Comprehensive Income
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- DuPont Analysis: Disaggregation of ROE, ROA, and Net Profit Margin
- Enterprise Value to FCFF (EV/FCFF)
- Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
- Return on Equity (ROE) since 2012
- Return on Assets (ROA) since 2012
- Total Asset Turnover since 2012
- Price to Book Value (P/BV) since 2012
- Aggregate Accruals
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Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.33% per annum.
- ABBV price at the close of December 20, 2024 was $175.58 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.62 (4.54%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 32.69% per annum.
- ABBV price at the close of December 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $6.20 (3.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ABBV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date:
End date:
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=
December 15, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
December 29, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.33% per annum.
- ABBV price at the close of December 20, 2024 was $175.58 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.62 (4.54%).
Secondary Trend
Start date:
End date:
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=
May 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
November 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 32.69% per annum.
- ABBV price at the close of December 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $6.20 (3.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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